Delivery Hero: Record sales of 12.8 billion euros, but 900 million losses!

Imagine ordering your favorite meal with one click while a global network of technology, logistics and innovation works behind the scenes to deliver your meal on time. This is exactly where Delivery Hero SE comes in, a DAX company that has made a name for itself in the dynamic world of online ordering services. With a presence in around 40 countries – from Asia to Europe to Latin America – the company is a key factor in a market that is booming due to digitalization and changing consumer habits. But what does the future look like for Delivery Hero when you consider industry growth, trends and the challenges in global and regional markets?

The online grocery market is growing rapidly, driven by increasing demand for convenience and increasing digitalization. Forecasts show that the global food delivery market could reach a volume of over €400 billion by 2030, with annual growth rates of around 10%. Delivery Hero benefits from this trend as the company has a strong position in various regions with brands such as Foodpanda, Talabat and PedidosYa. According to current data from Statista, the company's sales revenue in 2024 amounted to several billion euros, broken down by business areas such as platform services and its own delivery services. For detailed insights into the sales distribution, it's worth taking a look at Statista analysis, which transparently breaks down the company's financial segments. This growth reflects not only the increasing adoption of online ordering, but also Delivery Hero's ability to compete in a highly competitive market.

A look at the trends shows that innovations such as artificial intelligence and data analysis are increasingly shaping the industry. Delivery Hero invests heavily in technology to optimize delivery times, better understand customer preferences and create personalized offers. At the same time, the focus is on sustainability: packaging solutions and more efficient supply chains are intended to reduce the ecological footprint. These developments are crucial because consumers expect not only speed but also responsibility from companies. In addition, there is the trend towards cashless payments, which increases user-friendliness and speeds up transactions in many markets - especially in Asia and Europe. Such adaptations to modern consumer habits could give Delivery Hero a competitive advantage, especially in regions with high smartphone penetration.

At a global level, the company faces a complex landscape. In Asia, where markets such as India and Southeast Asia offer enormous potential, competition from local providers and international players such as Uber Eats or Grab is particularly intense. Latin America, led by the PedidosYa brand, is also showing strong growth, but economic instability and logistical challenges are slowing expansion. In the Middle East and North Africa, Delivery Hero scores with Talabat, but has to overcome cultural differences and regulatory hurdles. Europe, on the other hand, remains a saturated market where margins are under pressure due to high competition and strict labor laws. Current financial figures, available at Börsennews.de, illustrate these challenges: With a current price-to-sales ratio of 0.41, the stock appears undervalued, but a negative price-to-earnings ratio of -5.78 signals continued losses, based on a deficit of -0.9 billion euros in 2024.

Regionally, the picture is mixed. In emerging markets, the growing middle class is driving demand for delivery services, but scaling remains expensive and risky. In established markets such as Germany or Great Britain, the focus is on increasing efficiency and customer loyalty, as the growth potential is limited. Delivery Hero has to score points here with innovative additional offers, such as point-of-sale systems or advertising services for catering establishments, in order to stand out from competitors. At the same time, adapting to local preferences remains crucial – a one-size-fits-all model doesn’t work in a world where eating habits and payment preferences are so diverse.

In a world where competition is just a click away, the success of companies like Delivery Hero SE depends on how skillfully they maintain their position in the market. With record sales of almost 12.8 billion euros in 2024 and activities in over 70 countries worldwide, the DAX group has established itself as a serious player in the online food delivery sector. But what is the market share, who are the strongest competitors and what advantages could give Delivery Hero a head start in this highly competitive sector?

Let's start with market position: Delivery Hero holds significant shares in several regions, particularly in Asia and the MENA region. With sales of 4.1 billion euros in Asia and over 3.5 billion euros in the Middle East and North Africa, strength is evident in key markets such as South Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In South Korea, for example, the subsidiary brand Baemin was able to maintain its market share despite intense competition, as current market data shows. UBS analysts underline this potential and give a buy recommendation with a price target of 55 euros, based on double-digit growth in the region. The analysis provides further insights into these developments 4investors.de, which illuminates the company's strategic perspectives in detail. In Europe, however, sales are lower at 1.9 billion euros, which is due to saturated markets and the withdrawal from Germany in favor of Just Eat Takeaway.com.

A closer look at the competition shows that Delivery Hero operates in an environment that is characterized by global giants and local players alike. Uber Eats and DoorDash dominate in North America and are increasingly moving into other regions, while Just Eat Takeaway.com has a strong position in Europe - particularly in Germany with Lieferando. In Asia, companies like Grab and Meituan represent tough opponents, scoring points through their integration into super apps and aggressive pricing policies. Local providers are also a challenge, especially in emerging countries, as they are often better able to respond to cultural and culinary specialties. This diversity of competitors forces Delivery Hero to remain flexible and differentiate itself through innovation and regional adaptation.

So what are the strengths that could give the company an edge? A key advantage is the broad geographical diversification. With a presence in over 70 countries, Delivery Hero can diversify risks and benefit from growing markets while other regions stagnate. Added to this is the ability to build strong local brands such as Talabat or PedidosYa, which are deeply rooted in their respective markets. Technological innovations also play a key role: investments in AI and data analysis enable optimized delivery routes and personalized customer targeting, which increases efficiency and promotes user loyalty. For further details on the company structure and market presence, take a look at the comprehensive data Statista that provide a deep insight into Delivery Hero's global reach.

Another advantage lies in the strategic focus on high-growth regions such as the MENA region, where Goldman Sachs sees considerable potential and also issues a buy recommendation with a price target of 39 euros. The ability to enter into partnerships with catering establishments and offer additional services such as point-of-sale systems also strengthens the relationship with business customers. Nevertheless, competitive pressure remains high and margins are thin in many markets. Delivery Hero must therefore continue to invest in economies of scale while keeping an eye on the cost structure in order to grow profitably.

It will also be interesting to see how the share develops with a current price of 22.43 euros and an increase of 2.09%, especially in view of the positive analyst assessments. The question is whether the company will manage to meet expectations and further expand its market share in core regions while mastering the balancing act between innovation and cost control.

Numbers don't lie, and when it comes to Delivery Hero SE's financial health, they offer a blunt look at the DAX group's performance. Behind the scenes of a global online delivery service are impressive sales, but also challenges in terms of profits and margins. What are the key financial indicators such as sales, EBITDA and balance sheet structure, and what do they mean for the future of the company?

Let's start with sales, which reached a record level of almost 12.8 billion euros in 2024. This number marks a significant jump compared to previous years and underlines the strong market position in over 70 countries. Regionally, Asia contributes the largest share with around 4.1 billion euros, followed by the MENA region with over 3.5 billion euros and Europe with 1.9 billion euros. Delivery Hero generates particularly strong sales in countries such as South Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Anyone who would like to understand the historical development can find it at Statista a detailed overview of sales figures from 2013 to 2024, which illustrates the company's continuous growth.

Despite this impressive sales development, the profit situation remains tense. In 2024, Delivery Hero recorded a loss of around 0.9 billion euros, which is reflected in a negative price-earnings ratio of -5.78. The high investments in technology, expansion and logistics are putting a strain on profitability, especially in high-growth but low-margin markets. However, analyst forecasts indicate a possible turnaround: a price-earnings ratio of 33.00 is expected for 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability provided the cost structure is optimized.

A look at EBITDA – an indicator of operating performance before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization – also shows mixed signals. While specific figures for 2024 are not yet fully available in current reports, previous data suggests that Delivery Hero is achieving positive operating results in some regions, particularly in the MENA region. However, overall EBITDA remains under pressure as high operating costs and competitive investments weigh on margins. The EBITDA margin is currently well below the industry average, indicating the need to make greater use of economies of scale and consolidate inefficient markets.

Overall margins remain a critical point. In saturated markets such as Europe, they are thin due to high competition and regulatory requirements, while in emerging markets the high costs of setting up infrastructure and customer acquisition reduce profits. The gross margin is further burdened by the costs of delivery staff – with around 42,900 employees worldwide – and partnerships with catering establishments. A detailed breakdown of regional sales and their impact on margins is provided Statista, where the financial structure of the company is comprehensively presented. In order to become profitable in the long term, Delivery Hero must master the balancing act between growth investments and cost control.

The balance sheet figures complete the picture and show both strengths and risks. With a price-to-sales ratio of 0.41, the stock appears undervalued, which indicates a high sales volume in relation to the current market value. The price-to-cash flow ratio stands at 7.99, down from 12.33 last year, indicating improved cash flow generation - supported by cash flow per share of €2.14. Nevertheless, debt remains an issue, as the high investments in new markets and technologies are often financed by debt capital. The equity ratio and the exact debt structure require continuous monitoring in order to ensure long-term financial stability.

Delivery Hero's financial situation raises questions that cannot be answered through sales growth alone. How the balance between expansion and profitability evolves remains a key issue for investors, as does the ability to increase operating margins in a highly competitive environment.

Anyone who wants to feel the pulse of the stock market cannot ignore the price fluctuations of Delivery Hero SE - a rollercoaster ride that fascinates and challenges investors in equal measure. Since being included in the DAX in 2020, the online delivery service's shares have experienced both highs and deep troughs. How has the price developed historically, what is the volatility, and where does Delivery Hero compare to the broader market index?

A look back at the price development shows an eventful history. After the IPO in 2017, the value of the share initially rose sharply, driven by the boom in online delivery services during the pandemic. The peak was reached in November 2021, when the share was temporarily quoted above 130 euros. However, things have gone downhill since then: the current price is 22.43 euros, which corresponds to a decline of over 80% from the all-time high. Over the course of 2024, the stock recorded a loss of 12%, influenced by concerns about performance in Asia and lowered forecasts for 2025. Compared to the previous day, the price fell by 5.88%, over the last 30 days by 18.14% and even by 51.18% year-on-year. The stock is currently trading just 2.56% above its 52-week low, underscoring the difficult situation.

Delivery Hero stock volatility remains a key issue for investors. A Morningstar Uncertainty Rating of “very high” reflects the uncertainty about future developments. Strong price fluctuations are not uncommon in this industry, as it is influenced by factors such as competitive pressure, regional market distortions and macroeconomic uncertainties. Especially in the last two years, the stock has shown a high beta value calculation, indicating above-average sensitivity to market movements. This makes Delivery Hero a risky investment, especially for conservative investors looking for stability. For detailed insights into the valuation and uncertainty factors, it is worth taking a look at the analysis of Morningstar, which provides a fair value estimate of 30.50 euros and a no-meat rating for the stock.

Compared to the DAX index, Delivery Hero's underperformance is particularly noticeable. While the DAX has benefited from the economic recovery and the strength of large industrial and technology companies in recent years, Delivery Hero was unable to keep up. In 2023, the return on the DAX was around 20%, while Delivery Hero finished with a significant loss. Even in a longer-term comparison, the share lags behind the index: Since its peak in 2021, the DAX has only recorded moderate losses or even gains, while Delivery Hero has lost massively in value. Another point of comparison are megatrend indices such as the boerse.de megatrend shares, which achieved an impressive increase in value from 10,000 to over 3.7 million points from 1999 to 2023. Delivery Hero, although part of the digitalization megatrend, was unable to realize such long-term profits. For historical data and comparisons to megatrend indices boerse.de a sound basis for analyzing price developments.

The reasons for this discrepancy are obvious. While the DAX is supported by diversified companies with stable cash flows, Delivery Hero is heavily dependent on regional growth markets and high investment costs. The withdrawal from markets such as Japan and Thailand as well as losses in market share in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore have dented investor confidence. In addition, according to Morningstar, the company lacks an economic moat, which makes the stock more vulnerable to competitive pressure than many DAX companies. Nevertheless, analysts see potential: with a fair value estimate of EUR 30.50 and expected sales growth of 13.9% annually over the next five years, the stock could recover if operational progress is made.

The historical price development and the high volatility paint a picture of Delivery Hero as a speculative investment with significant risks, but also opportunities. How the share develops in comparison to the DAX depends largely on whether the company masters its strategic challenges and regains the trust of the markets.

Behind every successful company there are external forces and internal decisions that determine the course - at Delivery Hero SE these are macroeconomic factors such as interest rate developments and raw material prices as well as the demand for online delivery services and the management's decisions. These elements are crucial for investors and analysts to assess the future development of the DAX group. What influences are at work here and how could they shape the company's performance?

First of all, the development of interest rates, which plays a central role for a capital-intensive company like Delivery Hero. The building interest rates for ten-year loans are currently 3.6%, and over 80% of experts expect stable conditions in the short term, supported by a robust internal market situation in the EU and an inflation rate close to the ECB's 2% target. However, in the medium to long term, 60% of experts predict an increase to around 4%, due to geopolitical tensions, new tariffs and high national debt. For Delivery Hero, this means potentially higher financing costs, as expansions and investments in technology are often covered by debt. A detailed look at the interest rate forecasts can be found at Interhyp, where monthly expert surveys shed light on the development of conditions. Rising interest rates could put further pressure on already thin margins, especially in markets with high investment needs.

Another external factor is raw material prices, which indirectly influence operating costs. Although Delivery Hero is not directly dependent on raw materials such as oil or food, rising fuel prices are impacting delivery logistics, especially in regions with their own driver fleets. Current data shows that energy prices will remain volatile in 2024, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating global demand. For the company, this means a potentially higher cost per delivery, which is difficult to pass on to customers in a competitive market. In addition, rising food prices affect the catering companies that act as Delivery Hero partners and could put a strain on their willingness to cooperate or the commission models.

The picture on the demand side is more positive. The global online food delivery market continues to grow at annual rates of 10-15%, driven by urbanization, digitalization and a growing middle class in emerging markets. Delivery Hero is benefiting from this trend, particularly in Asia and the MENA region, where 48% and 26% of its 2024 gross merchandise value were generated, respectively. Forecasts indicate that demand will grow at this pace through 2032, allowing the company to achieve stable revenue growth of 13.9% on average annually over the next five years. Nevertheless, demand remains regionally uneven: While emerging markets offer high potential, it stagnates in saturated markets such as Europe, where only 18% of the gross merchandise value is achieved. Innovative offers and customer loyalty must be the driving forces here.

Delivery Hero’s management is crucial to realizing these opportunities. Under the leadership of CEO Niklas Östberg, the company has pursued an aggressive expansion strategy, resulting in a presence in over 70 countries. At the same time, difficult decisions were made, such as withdrawing from unprofitable markets such as Japan and Thailand and selling the German business to Just Eat Takeaway.com in 2019. Management relies heavily on technology investments, particularly in AI and data analytics, to optimize delivery processes and create personalized customer experiences. However, critics complain that the high investment costs are weighing on profitability - a point that management needs to address by sharpening its focus on high-margin regions such as the Middle East. Management also faces the challenge of overcoming regulatory hurdles in various markets and improving working conditions for delivery drivers in order to minimize reputational risks.

The combination of external factors such as interest rates and raw material prices as well as internal control by management will largely determine whether Delivery Hero achieves its growth targets. In particular, the ability to manage rising costs while leveraging demand in core markets remains a balancing act that requires close monitoring.

Navigating stormy geopolitical waters – this is the reality for global companies like Delivery Hero SE, whose success depends not only on internal strategies, but also on international trade conflicts, sanctions and political stability. With a presence in over 70 countries, the DAX group is particularly vulnerable to external disruptions that can impact supply chains, markets and investments. What risks arise from these factors and how could they shape the future of the company?

Trade conflicts are high on the list of potential threats. Tensions between large economic blocs such as the USA and the EU or between the USA and China have weighed on the global economy in recent years. Before the Corona crisis, such conflicts were identified as a major factor in the slowdown in German economic growth, particularly through US threats to increase tariffs on European products such as motor vehicles to 25%. Although the situation eased temporarily in 2019, the risk of punitive tariffs remains, as current analyzes show. A detailed study of the effects of such conflicts on the German economy is offered by Economic service, which simulates different scenarios. For Delivery Hero, trade conflicts could have indirect consequences: higher tariffs or trade barriers could increase the costs of technology imports or logistics equipment, while a general economic slowdown could reduce the purchasing power of customers in key markets such as Europe or Asia.

Equally critical are sanctions that play a role in geopolitically tense regions such as the Middle East or parts of Asia. Delivery Hero has a strong presence in the MENA region, where 26% of gross merchandise value was generated in 2024, and countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are among the top markets by sales. Sanctions or trade restrictions, for example in the context of the Iran conflict, could make access to these markets more difficult or affect payment systems. In addition, political tensions in the region could disrupt logistics chains, especially if there are transport restrictions or rising fuel costs. Such risks require a flexible strategy to explore alternative markets or supply routes if certain regions become inaccessible.

Political stability is another crucial factor affecting Delivery Hero's operations. In Latin America, which accounts for 8% of gross merchandise value, many countries are struggling with economic instability and political unrest, which can impact both demand and operating costs. In Asia, which accounts for 48% of gross merchandise value, stability varies widely between countries like South Korea, which is politically and economically robust, and other markets with higher risk of government change or social tensions. Political instability could lead to regulatory changes, such as labor laws or taxes, which would weigh on Delivery Hero's margins. In addition, uncertainty increases reluctance to invest, as simulations of trade conflicts show, which can also apply to political risks.

The German economy itself, in which Delivery Hero is no longer operational but remains rooted as a DAX company, is also under pressure. Current forecasts from DIW indicate a persistent deficit of at least 107.5 billion euros in the current year, exacerbated by restrictive financial policies following the collapse of the traffic light coalition. The DIW weekly report also warns of the global effects of trade conflicts, which could worsen the global economy and thus also the general conditions for German companies like Delivery Hero. A weak domestic market could further reduce investor confidence in the group, especially if uncertainty spreads to the financial markets.

The geopolitical risks posed by trade conflicts, sanctions and political instability pose a complex challenge for Delivery Hero. The company's ability to respond to such external shocks will be critical to securing growth in key regions while ensuring operational stability.

Imagine a world where every order is placed via an app in seconds - but behind this seemingly seamless process, Delivery Hero SE faces complex challenges in terms of backlog, delivery bottlenecks and production capacity. For the DAX group, which operates in over 70 countries, these operational factors are crucial to meeting the growing demand for online delivery services. What are these aspects and what impact could they have on future performance?

First of all, the order backlog, which at Delivery Hero is not measured directly in classic industrial terms, but rather refers to the number of orders via platforms such as Foodpanda, Talabat or PedidosYa. In 2024, the company recorded a record volume of orders, which correlates with global sales of almost 12.8 billion euros. This high demand reflects the growth of the online delivery market, which is increasing at 10-15% annually. However, the order backlog varies greatly between regions: Asia (48% of gross merchandise value) and the MENA region (26%) are showing robust growth, while Europe (18%) is more stagnant due to saturated markets. A comparison with industrial data from the Federal Statistical Office shows that the order backlog in the manufacturing sector in Germany fell by 0.2% in June 2024 compared to the previous month and by 6.2% compared to the previous year. For detailed insights into such trends, take a look at the Press release from Destatis which highlights the range and development of the order backlog in various sectors. For Delivery Hero, a high order backlog represents an opportunity but also pressure to increase operational efficiency.

Delivery bottlenecks represent another hurdle, which at Delivery Hero primarily relates to the availability of delivery staff and logistics capacities. With around 42,900 employees worldwide, primarily in delivery, the company is struggling with a shortage of drivers in some markets, particularly in urban centers with high demand. In addition, external factors such as fuel price increases or traffic problems can increase delivery times, which affects customer satisfaction. Such bottlenecks are particularly pronounced in emerging markets, where the infrastructure is often less developed, while in established markets such as Europe, regulatory requirements for working conditions make recruiting difficult. Supply shortages directly impact the ability to efficiently process backlogs and, in a highly competitive environment, could lead to loss of market share as customers switch to faster providers.

Delivery Hero's production capacities relate less to traditional manufacturing and more to the ability to process orders via digital platforms and coordinate logistics. The company's technological infrastructure is crucial here: investments in AI and data analysis aim to optimize delivery routes and increase the capacity of the platforms to cope with peak loads - for example during holidays or pandemic phases. However, there are limits, particularly in the scalability of delivery fleets. In high-growth regions such as Asia or the MENA region, Delivery Hero must continually recruit new drivers and expand partnerships with foodservice operators to match capacity to demand. A comparison with industrial data from the German Bundesbank shows that order backlogs and capacity bottlenecks in industry often go hand in hand. Further information about such indicators can be found on the website German Bundesbank, which provides detailed insights into incoming orders and inventory. For Delivery Hero, the challenge remains to expand the digital and logistics infrastructure in parallel with the growth in orders.

An additional aspect is the regional differences in capacity utilization. In mature markets such as Europe, overcapacity could arise if order growth stagnates, while in emerging markets demand often exceeds available resources. This requires flexible resource allocation to avoid inefficient structures while taking advantage of growth opportunities. Additionally, external disruptions such as geopolitical tensions or rising operating costs could impact the ability to quickly adjust capacity.

The dynamics of order backlog, delivery bottlenecks and production capacities remain a central lever for Delivery Hero to ensure operational performance. How the company overcomes these challenges in a global and regionally diverse environment will largely determine whether it can achieve its growth goals.

Let's dive into the world of digital pioneers, where Delivery Hero SE is shaping the future of online delivery services with technological advances. For the DAX group, which operates in over 70 countries, innovations, patents and research and development (R&D) spending are not just competitive advantages, but essential building blocks for taking the lead in a rapidly growing market. What developments are shaping this area and how could they influence the long-term position of the company?

Technological advances are at the heart of Delivery Hero's strategy. The company is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics to optimize delivery routes, shorten delivery times and create personalized customer experiences. These technologies make it possible to predict peak demand and use resources efficiently, which is particularly crucial in urban markets with high order volumes. Another focus is on automating internal processes, such as treasury management. According to an analysis by EY, with the implementation of the SAP S/4HANA platform and the SAP Analytics Cloud (SAC), Delivery Hero has created a central infrastructure that transparently maps global payment flows and improves liquidity planning. For deeper insights into this digitalization strategy, it's worth taking a look at EY study, which details the transformation of the company's financial processes. Such advances not only strengthen operational efficiency, but also the ability to scale quickly in a highly competitive environment.

In the area of ​​patents, Delivery Hero shows a clear focus on protecting its technological innovations, even if specific figures on registered or granted patents are often not detailed in public reports. The focus is on proprietary algorithms for delivery optimization and platform management, which are intended to secure a competitive advantage as intellectual property. The development of quick commerce solutions also plays a role, as is being promoted in the Innovation Hub in Berlin-Mitte. This hub, established since Foodpanda's withdrawal from Germany in 2021, focuses on new logistics and technology solutions to establish ultra-fast delivery services. A report from Supermarket blogs highlights the activities of this hub and points to experimental projects such as the “Pandamarket”, the exact direction of which is still unclear. Patents in this area could help Delivery Hero differentiate itself from competitors like Gorillas or Getir, especially in the emerging quick commerce market.

R&D spending is another critical factor underpinning Delivery Hero's innovative strength. Although exact figures for 2024 are not publicly available, executives such as Seda Kavaklipinar, Senior Manager Finance Systems, emphasize the need to invest in technology to keep up with growth of nearly 100% per year. These expenses not only cover the development of new platform features, but also the integration of AI-powered tools to improve user experience and the automation of backend processes. A significant part of the investments will go into optimizing delivery logistics to reduce costs and improve margins - a crucial point since the company recorded a deficit of 0.9 billion euros in 2024. The high R&D costs put a strain on profitability in the short term, but are necessary in the long term to ensure technological leadership and open up new markets.

An additional aspect is the strategic focus on quick commerce, which aims to reduce delivery times to just a few minutes. The Innovation Hub in Berlin serves as a test laboratory for such concepts, even if the exact progress and market launch are still unclear. These efforts could give Delivery Hero an edge over traditional delivery services, especially in densely populated areas where speed is a key competitive factor. At the same time, the challenge remains to scale such innovations cost-effectively, especially in regions with less technological infrastructure.

The technological advances, patent protection and high R&D expenditure position Delivery Hero as a pioneer in the digital delivery industry. The extent to which these investments can be converted into concrete competitive advantages depends on whether the company finds the balance between innovation and financial sustainability.

Let's look through the crystal ball of the financial world to predict the next three to five years for Delivery Hero SE - a period that offers both immense opportunities and significant hurdles for the DAX group. With a global footprint in over 70 countries, the company is at a turning point, characterized by dynamic markets and intense competition. What prospects are emerging, what drivers could spur growth, and what scenarios are conceivable for the future?

The outlook for the next three to five years shows robust sales growth potential. Analysts forecast average annual revenue growth of 13.9%, in line with expectations for the global online delivery market, which is expected to grow 10-15% annually through 2032 and could reach $300 billion. Delivery Hero could become profitable on an EBIT basis by 2026, with an operating margin expected to rise to 1.3% by 2029 - a significant jump from the current margin of -3.7% in 2024. In the long term, the company is targeting adjusted EBITDA of 5-8% of gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030. These numbers, detailed in the analysis of Morningstar, underline the potential for a financial turnaround if operational efficiency and cost control are achieved.

The key growth drivers include its strong position in high-growth regions such as the Middle East and Latin America, where Delivery Hero is the market leader in several markets. In the Middle East, which accounts for 26% of 2024 GMV, and Latin America at 8%, urbanization and a growing middle class offer enormous potential. Asia, with 48% of GMV, remains a key market driven by high smartphone penetration and digitalization, despite setbacks in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Another driver is technological innovation, particularly in AI and data analysis, which optimizes delivery times and enables personalized offers. In addition, the focus on quick commerce, where deliveries take place in minutes, could create a competitive advantage in urban centers. These factors could help Delivery Hero secure market share and further drive demand.

Nevertheless, various scenarios are conceivable for the coming years, which depend on external and internal developments. In the best case (optimistic scenario), Delivery Hero manages to improve margins faster than expected by leveraging economies of scale in high-growth markets and using technological innovations cost-effectively. Sales here could rise to over 20 billion euros by 2028, with an EBIT margin of 2-3% as early as 2026. Analysts such as UBS (price target 55 euros) and Goldman Sachs (price target 39 euros) see strong upward potential in this scenario for the share, which is currently trading at 22.43 euros. In the base case, which corresponds to current forecasts, sales grow in line with the expected 13.9% annually, with a gradual improvement in profitability until 2026. The stock could reach Morningstar's fair value estimate (30.50 euros) here, assuming there are no major setbacks.

However, in the pessimistic scenario, several risks could slow growth. Ongoing competitive pressure, particularly in Asia, where market share losses are already visible, as well as geopolitical uncertainties and rising operating costs could further weigh on margins. If exchange rate developments or macroeconomic slowdowns dampen demand in key markets, sales growth could fall below 10% per year, with ongoing losses until 2027. In addition, speculation surrounding the sale of shares by major shareholder Prosus, which wants to reduce its stake from over 25% to under 10%, could depress the share price in the short term. Provides a detailed analysis of these dynamics Lynx Brokers, which highlights the potential impact on the share price and half-year results on August 28th. In this scenario, the share could remain in the support zone of 19.69-21.31 euros or fall further.

The coming years will depend on Delivery Hero's ability to capitalize on regional growth opportunities and expand technological advantages while achieving financial stability. Which scenario prevails remains closely linked to the strategic direction and external market conditions, which must be continuously monitored.

Let's look into the near future and focus on the next 6 to 12 months for Delivery Hero SE, a phase that could be crucial for the DAX group to ensure short-term stability and underpin long-term goals. During this period, operational milestones, quarterly targets and analyst assessments take center stage as the company juggles internal and external challenges. What developments can be expected and how could they influence the course?

The outlook for the next 6 to 12 months shows a mixed picture with potential for moderate recovery, but also ongoing uncertainties. Delivery Hero has confirmed its forecast for the 2024 financial year, indicating stability in revenue development, with expected growth in line with the previous 13.9% annually. A key point is the publication of the quarterly and half-year results on August 28th, which according to Lynx Brokers could significantly influence the price development and the demand for share packages from the major shareholder Prosus. The current price of 22.43 euros is in a trading range with a support zone at 19.69-21.31 euros and a resistance zone at 27.22-28.28 euros. In the short term, the price could be weighed down by speculation surrounding the sale of shares by Prosus, which wants to reduce its stake from over 25% to under 10%, even if the sale in large packages to institutional investors should not put much pressure on the market.

Quarterly targets for the coming months focus on operational improvements and regional strength. Delivery Hero aims to secure revenue growth in key markets such as MENA (26% of 2024 GMV) and Asia (48% of GMV), while focusing on efficiency in Europe (18% of GMV). An important goal is to stabilize margins, especially after the setbacks in Asia due to loss of market share in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. The company also plans to convert the delivery drivers at its Spanish subsidiary Glovo to an employee model, which will lead to a burden on EBITDA of around 100 million euros in the 2025 financial year, but will reduce regulatory risks in the long term. Glovo is still expected to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Provisions for Glovo Spain of between 440 and 770 million euros were announced for 2024 to cover social security contributions, fines and other payments, according to an analysis by The shareholder described. These provisions could put a strain on the balance sheet in the short term, with the first payments or bank guarantees starting in Q2 2025.

Analyst opinions reflect a cautious but partly optimistic attitude. UBS maintains a buy recommendation with a price target of 55 euros, supported by stable growth in South Korea and other Asian markets. Goldman Sachs also sees potential with a price target of 39 euros, particularly in the MENA region, and emphasizes that competition concerns are already priced into the current price. Morningstar, on the other hand, gives the stock a fair value of EUR 30.50 and a “no moat” rating, which indicates a lack of sustainable competitive advantages. The recent price action, a 5% decline on Monday morning due to the Glovo provisions, shows the market's sensitivity to operational and regulatory news. Nevertheless, positive quarterly results on August 28 could push the price towards the resistance zone of 27.22-28.28 euros if the company demonstrates progress in cost control and regional stability.

Another influencing factor in the next few months is the planned share sale in Prosus, which will be spread over 12 months. While this could cause short-term volatility, the actual impact will depend on demand from institutional investors, which will be influenced by the upcoming results. Operationally, the challenge remains to overcome delivery bottlenecks and advance the integration of technologies such as AI to optimize logistics in order to ensure customer satisfaction.

The next 6 to 12 months will be a testing phase for Delivery Hero, with short-term operational goals and external uncertainties setting the tone. How these factors affect the company's price and perception remains a point that requires close observation.

Let's embark on a journey through the uncertain waters of the financial markets, where Delivery Hero SE is confronted with a multitude of market risks, regulatory hurdles and tempting expansion potential. For the DAX group, which operates in over 70 countries, these factors are crucial in finding the balance between growth and stability. What dangers lurk, what obstacles need to be overcome, and what are the opportunities for future success?

Market risks pose a constant threat to Delivery Hero, especially in a highly competitive sector such as online delivery services. Intense competition from global players such as Uber Eats, DoorDash and regional providers such as Grab or Meituan is putting pressure on margins that are already thin - in 2024 the operating margin was -3.7%. Particularly in Asia, where 48% of gross merchandise value is generated, the company suffered losses in market share in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore and withdrew from Japan and Thailand. Macroeconomic uncertainties, such as exchange rate fluctuations and a possible weakening of purchasing power in key markets, could dampen demand. In addition, the volatility of the share, currently at 22.43 euros with a support zone of 19.69-21.31 euros, poses a risk for investors, as historical price data shows DZ Bank show that document a narrow range of knockout thresholds and base prices in recent years. Such risks could further weigh on the price in the short term, especially in the event of negative quarterly results or external shocks.

Regulatory hurdles are another significant challenge that Delivery Hero faces in several markets. In Europe, where 18% of GMV is achieved, stricter labor laws are leading to operational adjustments, such as at the Spanish subsidiary Glovo. Here, the company plans to convert delivery drivers into an employee model, which will burden EBITDA by around 100 million euros in 2025, but will reduce legal risks in the long term. In addition, provisions for social security contributions, fines and other payments amounting to 440 to 770 million euros were announced for 2024. In emerging markets, particularly in the MENA region and Latin America, unpredictable regulatory changes, such as tax increases or new licensing requirements, can increase operating costs. Such hurdles require flexible strategies and often high investments to ensure compliance, which further strains already strained profitability.

On the other hand, there is considerable expansion potential that Delivery Hero could exploit in the coming years. The global online delivery market is expected to grow by 10-15% annually by 2032 and reach $300 billion, presenting huge opportunities. Particularly in the MENA region (26% of 2024 GMV) and Latin America (8% of GMV), the company is positioned as a market leader to benefit from urbanization and a growing middle class. Despite setbacks, Asia remains a key market with high smartphone penetration that promises further growth. In addition, focusing on quick commerce, where delivery times are reduced to minutes, could create a competitive advantage in urban centers. Financial flexibility for such expansions was created through the issuance of convertible bonds in 2020 with gross proceeds of up to 1.5 billion euros, according to a statement 4investors.de documented. These funds for general corporate purposes and investments could support entry into new markets or deepening existing positions.

Another aspect of the expansion potential lies in technological innovation, particularly in AI and data analytics, which can optimize delivery processes and create personalized customer experiences. Such advances could help Delivery Hero score points in saturated markets such as Europe through increased efficiency and scale faster in high-growth regions. However, the challenge remains to implement these expansions cost-effectively, especially given current losses and the need to meet regulatory requirements.

The combination of market risks, regulatory hurdles and expansion potential paints a complex picture for Delivery Hero. How the company navigates these challenges and capitalizes on opportunities will be crucial to surviving in a dynamic global market.