BMW faces decline in sales: 1.5 million recalls burden the balance sheet!

Imagine standing on the side of a race track, the engine of a BMW iX roaring, and the future of the automotive industry rushing past you at electrifying speed. It is precisely here, in the area of ​​tension between tradition and innovation, that BMW AG operates - a company that maintains its growth course in a challenging market environment. This section highlights current trends, industry growth and developments in global and regional markets to bring the Bavarian car manufacturer's position into sharp focus.

The automotive industry is undergoing a profound transformation, and BMW is at the forefront of electric mobility. In 2024, the BMW Group delivered an impressive 426,594 fully electric vehicles (BEVs), an increase of 13.5% compared to the previous year. The MINI brand in particular stands out with a sales increase of 24.3% (56,181 BEV), while Rolls-Royce surprised with spectacular growth of 479.6% (1,890 BEV). The share of fully electric vehicles in total sales is 17.4%, while electrified vehicles account for a total of 24.2%. Despite a decline in total deliveries of 4.0% to 2,450,804 units, it shows that the focus on electromobility is bearing fruit, as shown BMW Group press release clarified. This trend reflects global change, with sustainability and stricter emissions regulations leading the way.

However, at the global level the market remains uneven. While demand for electric vehicles increases worldwide, BMW in China is struggling with a 14.0% decline in sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 (190,892 vehicles). This contrasts with robust growth in the US, where deliveries rose 6.5% to 126,257 units over the same period. Europe shows a mixed picture: with a slight decline of 1.4% to 267,846 vehicles in the fourth quarter, BMW still claims double-digit market share growth in countries such as Italy, France and Great Britain. In Germany, the group scores particularly well in the fully electric vehicle segment, which underlines its strategic focus on regional strengths. These figures illustrate how strongly geopolitical uncertainties and economic fluctuations influence sales development.

A look at the economic conditions shows that the DAX, in which BMW plays a central role, will be characterized by record levels in 2024 and 2025. The index climbed to 24,639 points by July 2025, an increase of almost 24% since the beginning of the year, despite a German economy that remains in crisis with a GDP decline of 0.2% in 2024. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected growth of 0.2% and 1.3% respectively, remain cautious, according to an analysis by Lynx Brokers shows. Nevertheless, the DAX could reach the 25,000 point mark by the end of 2025, which benefits BMW as a value stock in an expensive market (P/E ratio 18.6). Investors see such stocks as protection against inflation, even if political uncertainties and possible corrections pose risks.

It is becoming apparent across the industry that competition for technological leadership and market share in electromobility is becoming more intense. BMW's focus on BEVs and diversification across brands such as MINI and Rolls-Royce provide a solid basis to benefit from this megatrend. At the same time, the challenge remains of maintaining the position in weak markets such as China, while systematically exploiting growth potential in Europe and the USA. The preliminary delivery figures for 2024 could still change, but the direction is clear: BMW is navigating a complex global environment with a mix of innovation and strategic adaptation.

Let's navigate the chessboard of the automotive industry, where every move determines market shares and competitive advantages. For BMW AG, it's not just about keeping up in a highly competitive premium segment, but also about determining the rules of the game. This section delves deep into the Bavarian company's market position, analyzes its main competitors and highlights what strengths characterize BMW in the race for pole position.

BMW maintains a strong position in the premium automobile market, as current figures from Switzerland show. There, the BMW Group achieved a market share of 10.4% in the first quarter of 2024, with 5,935 registered BMW and MINI brand vehicles. BMW alone secured 9.0% of the market with 5,170 new registrations (+4.0% compared to the previous year), while MINI contributed 1.3% with 765 units. Electrified models in particular contribute to the success, with 1,601 registrations and a share of 10.0% in the plug-in vehicle segment. Models like the BMW iX1, the best-selling all-electric representative, as well as the X1 and X3 series underpin this position like one Press release from BMW Group Switzerland clarified. These figures reflect the ability to take a leading role even in smaller but demanding markets such as Switzerland.

A similar picture emerges across Europe, even if the challenges vary. From January to September 2024, BMW delivered 577,803 vehicles in Europe, up 7.6%, with particularly strong growth in fully electric vehicles (+35.8% to 121,844 units). High demand in the UK, Italy and France is boosting market shares, while Germany saw a decline of 8.8% to 264,846 vehicles in the third quarter. Globally, total sales remain under pressure with 1,754,158 vehicles delivered (-4.5%), particularly due to difficult conditions in China and delivery bans, as another BMW Group announcement shows. Nevertheless, the focus on electromobility remains a central driver for securing market share in the premium segment.

In competition, BMW primarily faces German rivals such as Mercedes-Benz and Audi, which are also aggressively focusing on electromobility and premium positioning. Mercedes-Benz is pursuing a similar strategy with the EQ series as BMW with the i-series, while Audi scores points in the luxury electric segment with models like the e-tron GT. There are also international players such as Tesla, which continues to set standards in the field of electric vehicles and is putting BMW under pressure, particularly in markets such as the USA and China. Emerging Chinese manufacturers such as BYD are also gaining ground, especially through aggressive pricing strategies and government support, which poses additional challenges for BMW in Asia. The competition is not just about sales figures, but increasingly about technological leadership in areas such as battery efficiency and autonomous driving.

What sets BMW apart from many competitors is the combination of brand diversity and innovative strength. With BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce, the group covers different segments - from sporty premium vehicles to urban compact models to absolute luxury. This diversification makes it possible to address different customer groups and spread risks. There is also an early focus on electromobility, which is reflected in a 19.1% increase in sales of fully electric vehicles (294,054 units in the first nine months of 2024). Models like the BMW iX1 or the new MINI Aceman, which will celebrate its world premiere in 2024, show how specifically the group reacts to trends. The strong performance of BMW M GmbH with a sales increase of 2.0% (146,574 vehicles) also underlines the brand strength in the high-performance segment.

Another advantage lies in the global presence and the ability to exploit regional strengths. While BMW scores points in Europe with a clear focus on electrified models, in the USA the brand remains a synonym for premium and dynamism. Even in difficult markets such as China, where sales fell by 29.8% to 147,691 vehicles in the third quarter, BMW has established structures and partnerships that promise long-term stability. The balance between tradition and future vision remains a crucial factor in not only surviving global competition, but also in continuing to set trends.

Let's delve into the world of numbers, where balance sheet figures and financial data reveal the true strength of a company like BMW AG. Behind the shiny bodies and innovative technologies are sales, profits and margins that measure the company's economic pulse. This section provides a concise analysis of BMW's financial performance, with a focus on sales performance, profit, EBITDA, margins and key balance sheet metrics to provide investors and experts with clear insights.

Let's start with turnover, which is considered the cornerstone of financial performance. According to current data, the BMW Group has shown robust development over the years, even if 2024 brought challenges. From 2000 to 2024, sales increased continuously, with a value of over 150 billion euros in recent years, according to statistics from Statista clarified. Despite a slight decline in deliveries of 4.0% to 2,450,804 vehicles in 2024, sales in the premium segment remain stable, supported by the growing share of electrified vehicles (24.2% of total sales). These numbers reflect how BMW maintains a solid revenue base despite global uncertainties.

However, a closer look at the earnings situation shows that 2024 was not an easy year. BMW AG has adjusted its annual forecast because additional burdens caused by delivery blocks and recalls of the integrated braking system (IBS) caused high warranty costs. These costs amounted to a three-digit million amount in the third quarter, which noticeably reduced the profit margin. Group earnings before taxes are now expected to fall significantly, after only a slight decline was previously forecast. This development, detailed in one BMW Group press release, underscores financial challenges compounded by technical issues and subdued demand in China.

The EBIT margin, a critical indicator of operating profitability, was also revised downwards. In the automobile segment, a margin of 6% to 7% is now expected, compared to 8% to 10% previously. The situation is similar in the motorcycles segment, where the EBIT margin was reduced to 6% to 7% (previously 8% to 10%) due to a tense market and competitive situation in core markets such as China and the USA. The return on capital employed (RoCE) in the automobile segment falls to 11% to 13% (previously 15% to 20%), while for motorcycles it falls to 14% to 16% (previously 21% to 26%). These key figures show that BMW is under considerable pressure to maintain profitability in a difficult environment.

Despite the strain on margins, liquidity remains a stable factor. The free cash flow in the automobile segment is expected to be over 4 billion euros in 2024, which gives BMW scope for investments in electromobility and new technologies. This financial flexibility is crucial to remaining competitive in a capital-intensive sector such as automotive. The ability to generate positive cash flow despite setbacks indicates a solid balance sheet structure, although exact figures on the equity ratio or debt ratio will still emerge from the full quarterly results (publication on November 6, 2024).

Another aspect that deserves attention is the long-term sales and profit strategy. BMW is investing heavily in the transformation towards electromobility, which will put a strain on margins in the short term, but could strengthen its competitive position in the long term. The increasing sales figures for fully electric vehicles (426,594 units in 2024, +13.5%) are already contributing to a higher share of sales, even if high development costs and warranty burdens are dampening profits. The balance between investments in future technologies and securing operational profitability remains a central challenge that will continue to shape BMW in the coming quarters.

Let's take a journey through time through the stock market charts to take a closer look at the price development of BMW AG. Stock prices tell stories of ups and downs, of stability and unpredictable fluctuations. This section analyzes the historical price trends of the BMW share, highlights the volatility and puts it in relation to the DAX in order to provide investors with a well-founded picture of market performance.

A look back at long-term development shows that BMW shares have delivered solid, if not always consistent, performance over decades. Looking at the period from 1999 to 2023, the data reflects a steady increase in value that correlates with general market trends. According to an analysis by boerse.de The value of Megatrend shares, which include BMW, increased significantly between December 31, 1999 and December 29, 2023. While a fictitious starting value of 10,000 in 1999 grew to 3,727,156.17 for the boerse.de Megatrend shares, this shows that BMW is operating in a high-growth environment. The BMW share itself reached highs several times during this period, for example in November 2021, when many indices such as the Nasdaq 100 also recorded peak values.

However, a closer look at the recent past reveals increased volatility driven by economic and company-specific factors. Between 2020 and 2025, the price of BMW shares fluctuated greatly, influenced by the pandemic, supply chain issues and the recent recalls in 2024. Historical price data as shown on onvista.de can be accessed, enable detailed analysis via various trading venues such as Xetra or Tradegate. This shows that after a low point in March 2020 (approx. 36 euros), the share climbed to over 90 euros by the end of 2021, only to then fall back to around 80 euros in 2023 during phases of economic uncertainty. These fluctuations reflect an annual volatility of around 20-25% as measured by the standard deviations of daily returns, which BMW considers to be moderately risky.

Compared to the DAX, the leading German index, BMW shares show a mixed performance. While the DAX reached record levels between 2023 and 2025 - with a high of 24,639 points in July 2025 - BMW was not always able to keep up with the same momentum. The index recorded an increase of 18.9% in 2024 (from 16,828 to 19,909 points), while BMW shares were under pressure during this period due to declines in sales and warranty costs. If you calculate the beta number, which measures the correlation to the market, BMW is around 1.1, which indicates a slightly above-average sensitivity to DAX movements. In phases of rising markets, BMW benefits disproportionately, but in downturns the share suffers more.

A deeper insight into the price trends shows that external factors such as geopolitical tensions and the economic situation in Germany (GDP decline of 0.2% in 2024) are additionally fueling the volatility of BMW shares. In particular, the decline in demand in China, a key market, as well as the high costs of recalls in 2024 (three-digit millions) have put a strain on the price. Nevertheless, the share remains attractive for long-term investors as it is considered a value stock in an expensive market (DAX P/E ratio 18.6) and offers potential inflation protection. However, short-term fluctuations, as seen in the 2024 monthly data, require high risk tolerance or clever hedging strategies such as stop-loss orders.

Historical considerations make it clear that BMW's share price remains closely linked to general market developments and industry-specific trends such as electromobility. As the DAX continues to chase records, BMW faces the challenge of overcoming operational problems while benefiting from the transformation of the automotive industry. Stock volatility will remain an issue in the coming months, particularly given global uncertainties and the company's strategic direction.

Let's imagine looking through the cockpit of a BMW i8 at the economic landscape, where interest rates, raw materials and demand determine the road conditions. For BMW AG, these external factors are just as crucial as the internal control by management. This section analyzes the impact of interest rate developments, raw material prices and demand fluctuations on the group and takes a look at strategic management in order to assess the course for the future.

Interest rate developments play a central role for BMW, particularly when financing investments and customer financing of vehicles. The building interest rates for ten-year loans are currently 3.6% (as of November 5th, 2025), and over 80% of experts expect stable conditions in the short term, due to a robust internal market situation in the EU and an inflation rate close to the ECB's 2% target. However, in the medium term, 60% of experts predict an increase to around 4%, driven by geopolitical tensions and high national debt, according to an analysis by Interhyp shows. For BMW, this means potentially higher financing costs, both for its own investments in electromobility and for customers who use leasing or credit offers. A rise in interest rates could dampen demand for high-priced vehicles, especially in price-sensitive markets.

Another critical factor is raw material prices, which have a direct impact on production costs in the automotive industry. BMW relies heavily on materials such as steel, aluminum and rare earths for batteries. Since 2022, prices for lithium and cobalt, essential for electric vehicle batteries, have declined from their highs but remain volatile. Fluctuations of 10-15% within a quarter are not uncommon, which makes cost planning difficult. At the same time, rising energy prices - for example for production in Europe - continue to put pressure on margins, especially since BMW is already expecting a reduced EBIT margin of 6-7% in 2024. Strategic partnerships and long-term supply contracts could reduce risks here, but dependence on global markets remains a factor of uncertainty.

The demand for BMW vehicles shows a mixed picture, which is strongly influenced by regional differences. While sales of fully electric vehicles (BEVs) rose by 13.5% to 426,594 units in 2024, total sales fell by 4.0% to 2,450,804 vehicles. In China in particular, a key market, sales fell by 14.0% to 190,892 units in the fourth quarter, despite government support measures. In the USA (+6.5% to 126,257 units) and parts of Europe (double-digit growth in Italy, France and Great Britain), demand is developing positively, especially for electrified models, which account for 24.2% of sales. This divergence requires a flexible production and sales strategy in order to react quickly to regional fluctuations.

The management level at BMW AG is crucial for overcoming these external challenges. Under the leadership of Oliver Zipse, CEO since 2019, the group has pursued a clear focus on electromobility and sustainability. Zipse is driving the transformation with the goal of generating at least 50% of sales from fully electric vehicles by 2030. Its strategy to accelerate investments in battery technology and digital platforms is showing success, as evidenced by BEV growth of 19.1% in the first nine months of 2024 (294,054 units). At the same time, management is faced with the challenge of managing operational setbacks such as the delivery bans in 2024 (over 1.5 million vehicles affected), which cause high warranty costs. The adjustment of the annual forecast (EBIT margin from 8-10% to 6-7%) reflects the need to act pragmatically in difficult times.

The combination of rising interest rates, volatile raw material prices and inconsistent demand presents BMW with complex tasks that can only be mastered through forward-looking management. Zipse and his team must continue to diversify, both in terms of markets and technologies, in order to spread risks. Focusing on premium segments and innovative models such as the BMW iX1 or the new MINI Aceman could help secure demand in high-growth regions, while cost control and supply chain management remain crucial to stabilize margins.

Let's take a deeper look at the global stage, where trade conflicts, sanctions and political uncertainty are redefining the rules of the game for companies like BMW AG. In a world characterized by geopolitical tensions, the Bavarian automobile manufacturer faces challenges that go far beyond production and sales. This section examines how international conflicts and political conditions influence BMW's business strategy and market position.

Trade conflicts pose a serious threat to BMW, especially in the context of transatlantic relations. The German automotive industry, a central pillar of the economy, is particularly vulnerable to tariff disputes, such as the US's repeated threats to increase import tariffs on motor vehicles and parts from the EU to up to 25%. Although the deadline for such a measure passed in 2019, uncertainty remains as new tensions - for example in the dispute over the French digital tax - continue to flare up. An analysis in Economic service shows that a prolonged trade conflict could cause significant losses in growth and rising unemployment in Germany. For BMW, this would mean higher export costs in the USA, a market that represents an important growth region in 2024 with a sales increase of 6.5% (126,257 units in the fourth quarter).

Sanctions and trade restrictions are further aggravating the situation, especially with regard to the Chinese market, which remains essential for BMW despite a 14.0% decline in sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 (190,892 vehicles). Tensions between the US and China, coupled with possible EU sanctions or countermeasures, could further disrupt supply chains. BMW relies heavily on international suppliers, particularly for battery components and raw materials such as lithium. Sanctions against certain countries or companies could drive up procurement costs and cause production delays, which would further weigh on the already strained EBIT margin of 6-7% for 2024. Simulations from the economic service indicate that such conflicts significantly affect the competitiveness of export-oriented companies such as BMW.

Political stability - or lack thereof - also directly affects BMW's business activities. In Europe, the situation remains relatively stable despite economic challenges (GDP decline of 0.2% in Germany in 2024), enabling double-digit market share increases in countries such as Italy, France and Great Britain. But global uncertainties, such as geopolitical conflicts or domestic political tensions in key markets such as China, pose risks. Subdued demand in China, despite government support measures, shows how political and economic instability can affect sales. In addition, new tariffs or trade barriers, such as those threatened in the transatlantic conflict, could increase prices for BMW vehicles in important markets and further dampen demand.

The effects of such external factors are not only noticeable in the short term, but could also shape BMW's strategic direction in the long term. According to simulation models (NiGEM), an ongoing trade conflict between the USA and the EU would not only burden Germany, but the entire global economy, with BMW, as a company with strong exports, being particularly affected. Fiscal policy measures could mitigate the negative effects, but dependence on international markets and supply chains remains a key risk. BMW must therefore focus on diversification, for example through increased local production in the USA or Asia, in order to minimize customs risks.

The political landscape remains an unpredictable factor that will test BMW's ability to adapt. While the group benefits from a certain degree of stability in Europe, escalating trade conflicts or new sanctions could significantly change the cost structure and sales opportunities. The strategic challenge is to balance global uncertainties through flexible production and sales models in order to remain competitive.

Let's take a look behind the scenes at BMW AG, where the production machinery is running at full speed - or sometimes comes to a standstill. Order backlogs, delivery bottlenecks and production capacities form the backbone of the group's operational performance. This section provides a detailed analysis of these factors to highlight the current challenges and opportunities for BMW in a challenging market environment.

The order backlog in the automotive industry is currently showing a downward trend, which also affects BMW. According to a press release from the Federal Statistical Office dated August 19, 2024, the order backlog in the manufacturing sector fell by 0.2% in June 2024 compared to the previous month and by 6.2% compared to the previous year. Specifically, the automotive industry recorded a 0.7% decline, marking the 17th consecutive month of falling numbers. The range of the order backlog is 7.2 months, with capital goods - which include vehicles - having a range of 9.7 months. For BMW, this means that despite a high proportion of orders (particularly for electrified models), overall demand remains subdued, which correlates with the overall sales decline of 4.0% to 2,450,804 vehicles in 2024. This data, available at Destatis, illustrate the challenge of processing existing orders efficiently.

Supply shortages represent another hurdle affecting BMW's ability to fulfill orders. Global supply chain problems, particularly with semiconductors and raw materials such as lithium for batteries, have repeatedly disrupted production in recent years. In 2024, these bottlenecks worsened due to delivery blocks and recalls that affected over 1.5 million vehicles, causing high warranty costs in the hundreds of millions. Such delays have a direct impact on delivery figures, as shown by the 13.0% decline to 540,882 automobiles in the third quarter of 2024. Dependence on international suppliers, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, leaves BMW vulnerable to further disruption, particularly in markets like China, where sales already fell 29.8% in the third quarter.

Production capacities are a crucial lever for responding to fluctuations in demand and delivery problems, but BMW is under pressure here too. The group operates numerous plants worldwide, including in Germany, the USA, China and other locations, with an annual capacity of over 2.5 million vehicles. Despite these impressive figures, capacities could not be fully utilized in 2024 due to the aforementioned delivery bottlenecks and technical recalls, such as the Integrated Braking System (IBS). The adjustment to the full-year forecast – from a slight increase in deliveries to a slight decline – reflects these limitations. At the same time, BMW is investing in expanding electric vehicle capacity to support growth in BEVs (426,594 units in 2024, +13.5%), which could increase production flexibility in the long term.

A closer look at incoming orders, as recorded by the Deutsche Bundesbank in its statistics, shows that they serve as a leading indicator of economic development. The data, available at Bundesbank, illustrate that in the automotive industry, domestic orders rose by 0.6% in June 2024, while foreign orders fell by 0.7%. For BMW, this means greater dependence on domestic demand, while international markets such as China continue to weaken. The ability to quickly convert orders into sales is limited by inventory reach (9.7 months for capital goods), which puts additional pressure on production planning.

The combination of declining orders on hand, ongoing delivery bottlenecks and limited production utilization presents BMW with the task of optimizing operational processes. Strategic measures such as diversifying supply chains and expanding local production could help minimize risks. At the same time, the focus on electromobility remains a driver for future orders, especially in Europe and the USA, where demand for BEVs continues to grow. The coming months will show whether BMW can transform these challenges into growth opportunities.

Let's explore the innovation frontier at BMW AG, where the future of mobility is being reshaped with every technological breakthrough. Advances in technology, patents and high spending on research and development (R&D) are the engine that drives BMW forward in global competition. This section analyzes how the group is strengthening its position through innovations and which strategic investments are setting the course for the coming years.

Technological advances are at the heart of BMW's strategy, particularly in the area of ​​electromobility. From 2025, BMW will introduce the new round cell for the New Class models, which will enable the cost of high-voltage storage to be reduced by up to 50% compared to the current generation. This technology increases the energy density by over 20%, the charging speed by up to 30% and the range also by up to 30%. BMW also relies on CO2-reduced production using green electricity and secondary materials, which promotes sustainability. The construction of battery cell factories with an annual capacity of up to 20 GWh in Europe, China and the USMCA region underlines the global ambition, according to a statement from the BMW Group shows. These developments position BMW as a pioneer in battery technology.

Patents are another indicator of BMW's innovative strength. The group continually secures intellectual property in areas such as electromobility, autonomous driving and digitalization. In the last few years alone, BMW has filed hundreds of patents, ranging from new battery chemistries to generative design processes that reduce material use by up to 50%. These intellectual property rights not only create competitive advantages, but also potential licensing revenues and partnerships. BMW is demonstrating pioneering work that is secured by patents, particularly in the area of ​​digital networks, such as the Catena-X project for sustainable vehicle development. Such innovations are crucial to maintaining technological leadership in a highly competitive market.

BMW's R&D spending reflects its commitment to pioneering technologies. The German automotive industry as a whole will invest over 250 billion euros in research and development from 2023 to 2027, with BMW contributing a significant share. More than 50 billion euros flow into R&D every year, with a focus on electromobility, battery technology, autonomous driving and digitalization, according to a press release from Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) clarified. For BMW, this means that a significant part of the budget will go towards the transformation towards fully electric vehicles, with the aim of putting over two million BEVs on the road by the end of 2025. MINI and Rolls-Royce will offer exclusively electric models from 2030, underlining the high level of investment in R&D.

Another focus is on sustainable materials and urban mobility. BMW will introduce vegan, leather-free interiors from 2023, reducing CO2 emissions by 85%, and using ocean plastic waste for components, reducing its carbon footprint by 25%. In the area of ​​urban mobility, BMW is developing electrically powered single-track vehicles such as the BMW CE 04 and promoting intelligent traffic management solutions and the integration of charging infrastructure. These initiatives show that BMW not only focuses on technical innovation, but also addresses social trends such as sustainability and urbanization.

The strategic focus on technology and innovation positions BMW for long-term success, even if short-term challenges such as high development costs and operational setbacks (e.g. recalls in 2024) weigh on margins. BMW is pursuing a clear vision with the goal of reducing CO2 emissions in the use phase by 50% by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Continuous investment in R&D and building a robust patent portfolio lay the foundation to continue to play a leading role in a changing market.

Let's look into the distance through the windshield to explore BMW AG's prospects for the next three to five years. In an industry that is changing rapidly, the success of the Bavarian automobile manufacturer depends on strategic decisions and the ability to take advantage of global trends. This section outlines the outlook for BMW until 2028-2030, identifies key growth drivers and highlights possible scenarios that could shape the company's development.

The outlook for the coming years shows BMW on a path of transformation, with a clear focus on electromobility. According to the 2025 annual conference, the group expects a slight increase in deliveries in 2025, accompanied by an improved EBIT margin in the automotive segment, as Walter Mertl, board member for finance, emphasized. By 2028-2030, BMW aims to generate over 50% of sales from fully electric vehicles (BEVs), with a target of over two million BEVs on the roads by the end of 2025. MINI and Rolls-Royce are to offer exclusively electric models from 2030, underlining the ambitious focus. These forecasts, detailed in a speech at the Annual Conference 2025, signal annual sales growth for BEVs of around 15-20%, based on the 426,000 units (+13.5%) in 2024.

One of the central growth drivers is electromobility, supported by technological innovations such as the new round cell of the New Class from 2025, which reduces costs by up to 50% and increases range and charging speed by 30%. These advances could increase BMW's market share in the premium electric segment to 25-30% by 2030, especially in Europe and the US, where demand for BEVs was already growing at double digits in 2024. Another driver is digitalization, including autonomous driving. The cooperation with Daimler AG to develop SAE Level 4 systems, with market launch from 2024, positions BMW as a pioneer in this area. In addition, sustainable materials and urban mobility solutions, such as vegan interiors and electric single-track vehicles, further increase the brand's appeal among environmentally conscious customers.

An optimistic scenario sees BMW as the leading provider of premium electric vehicles by 2030, with sales of over 3 million BEVs annually. This assumes that supply chains stabilize, demand continues to grow in key markets such as the US and Europe (forecasted growth of 10-15% annually) and geopolitical tensions, particularly in China, decrease. In this case, the EBIT margin in the automotive segment could return to 8-10%, supported by falling R&D and investment rates from 2025 (from 9.1 billion euros in 2024). Sales could rise to over 160 billion euros, driven by higher-priced electric models and free cash flow growing from 4.9 billion euros (2024) to 6-7 billion euros.

A moderate scenario takes into account ongoing challenges, such as weak demand in China (down 14% in Q4 2024) and possible trade conflicts that increase export costs. Here, BEV sales would stagnate at around 2.5 million units by 2030, with total sales of 2.8-3 million vehicles annually. The EBIT margin could remain at 6-7% as high investments in technology and recalls (like in 2024 with costs in the three-digit million range) reduce profitability. Sales would be 145-150 billion euros, with a free cash flow of 4-5 billion euros, which still offers scope for innovation.

A pessimistic scenario outlines a world with escalating geopolitical tensions and economic downturns (e.g. GDP growth in Germany at only 0.2% in 2025). Supply chain issues and raw material shortages could further limit production, while interest rate rises (predicted at 4%) dampen demand for premium vehicles. In this case, BEV sales could be 1.8-2 million units by 2030, total sales could fall below 2.5 million vehicles and the EBIT margin could fall to 5-6%. Sales would stagnate at 130-135 billion euros, with free cash flow below 4 billion euros, making investments in new technologies difficult.

For BMW, the coming years will be characterized by the balance between innovation and operational stability. While electromobility and autonomous driving are clear growth drivers, success depends on managing external risks and adapting to regional market conditions. The strategic focus on sustainability and digitalization offers potential, but the uncertainties in the global economy require flexible approaches to navigate the different scenarios.

Let's zoom in to examine BMW AG's near-term prospects over the next 6 to 12 months. In a period characterized by operational challenges and economic uncertainty, the Group's success depends on its ability to respond quickly to market changes. This section provides a precise forecast for the coming period, highlights quarterly targets and analyzes expert assessments to provide investors with clear guidance.

For the next 6 to 12 months, i.e. until mid-to-late 2025, BMW expects a slight recovery after a difficult 2024. The adjusted annual forecast for 2024, which envisages a slight decline in deliveries (from previously expected slight increase) and an EBIT margin of 6-7% (previously 8-10%) in the automotive segment, indicates continued pressure. Nevertheless, the fourth quarter of 2024 showed a sequential improvement over the third quarter, with reduced inventory levels due to the Integrated Braking System (IBS), according to a release from the BMW Group is highlighted. For 2025, BMW forecasts a slight increase in deliveries, indicating a stabilization of supply chains and a moderate recovery in demand, particularly in Europe and the US. Sales of fully electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to continue growing, up from 426,594 units (+13.5%) in 2024, with an expected increase of 10-15% to around 470,000-490,000 units by mid-2025.

Quarterly goals for the coming months focus on improving operational efficiency. In the first quarter of 2025, BMW aims to deliver approximately 600,000-620,000 vehicles, based on the dynamics of the fourth quarter of 2024 (696,647 units, -2.9%). This would represent a slight increase compared to the same quarter last year, driven by BEVs and plug-in hybrids (166,000 units in 2024). Similar volumes are expected for the second quarter of 2025, with a focus on introducing new New Class models to reduce costs and support margins. The EBIT margin in the automotive segment is expected to stabilize at 6.5-7% in the first half of 2025, supported by falling R&D and investment rates (from EUR 9.1 billion in 2024). Free cash flow in the automotive segment is forecast at over 4 billion euros for 2025, ensuring solid liquidity.

Analysts' opinions on BMW's short-term development are mixed, but mostly cautiously optimistic. According to a compilation of 26 analysts, the average price target for BMW shares by 2026 is €87.72, about 1.83% above the current price. The highest price target is €102.90 (+19.46%), the lowest is €66.66 (-22.61%), which shows the range of expectations. Out of 29 analysts, 15 recommend a buy, 11 recommend a hold and 3 recommend a sell, as on shares.guide documented. These estimates reflect the uncertainty caused by operational setbacks such as the IBS recalls (over 1.5 million vehicles affected, costs in the three-digit million range) and weak demand in China (down 14% in Q4 2024). Nevertheless, many analysts see potential in the BEV strategy and cost reductions through new technologies.

The short-term challenges for BMW lie in dealing with the aftermath of 2024, particularly high warranty costs and subdued demand in China. At the same time, increasing demand for BEVs in Europe and the USA (double-digit growth in several markets) as well as the gradual introduction of the New Class models offer opportunities for recovery. The quarterly targets indicate a moderate improvement in deliveries, with a focus on margin stability. Analysts remain cautious as geopolitical uncertainties and possible interest rate hikes (predicted at 4%) could impact demand for premium vehicles.

The next 6 to 12 months will be crucial for BMW to achieve operational stability while driving the transformation towards electromobility. While quarterly targets point to a modest recovery, uncertainty in key markets remains a risk that must be managed through strategic adjustments and cost control. The mixed analyst opinions reflect this balance between potential and challenges that will characterize BMW in the coming months.

Let's navigate the choppy waters of global markets to explore the risks and opportunities for BMW AG. In a world full of economic and regulatory challenges, but also with promising opportunities for expansion, the Bavarian automobile manufacturer is faced with a complex area of ​​tension. This section analyzes the main market risks, highlights regulatory hurdles and identifies potential for geographical and strategic growth.

Market risks pose a significant threat to BMW, particularly in key markets such as China, the world's largest auto market. In October 2023, the Chinese market shrank by 0.8% year-on-year, and German premium manufacturers such as BMW reported declining sales figures due to discount battles by local electric car suppliers and the financial burden on wealthy customers due to the real estate crisis. Despite a cumulative sales increase of 8.3% after ten months, China remains a risk factor, an analysis shows DZ Bank securities shows. The 14.0% decline in sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 (190,892 units) highlights the difficulties of gaining a foothold in a market with high levels of competition and economic uncertainty. In addition, geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, such as possible US tariffs on EU vehicles, could increase export costs in the USA (sales increase of 6.5% in Q4 2024) and further squeeze margins.

Regulatory hurdles complicate BMW's strategic planning, especially in the context of electromobility and sustainability. Stricter emissions regulations in the EU and other regions are forcing the group to invest heavily in CO2-reduced technologies, which is putting a strain on the EBIT margin (currently 6-7%). Another obstacle is the slow introduction of frameworks for bi-directional charging (vehicle-to-grid, V2G), which is crucial for the integration of electric vehicles into energy systems. A study by the Research Center for the Energy Industry (FfE) highlights that a market ramp-up for V2G could only be possible in 2029 unless regulatory incentives such as electricity tax relief (implementable from 2026) and a faster smart meter rollout are created. BMW is planning a V2G offer for the iX3 from 2026 with Eon, but without supporting laws, scaling remains limited pv-magazine.de described.

Expansion potential offers BMW significant opportunities despite the risks and hurdles. In Europe and the USA, where demand for BEVs grew double-digit in 2024 (a total of 426,594 units, +13.5%), BMW can continue to score points by expanding production capacities and charging infrastructure. The introduction of the New Class models from 2025, which will reduce costs by up to 50% and increase range by 30%, could increase market share in the premium electric segment to 20-25% by 2026. In addition, the cooperation with Daimler AG in the area of ​​autonomous driving (SAE Level 4 from 2024) offers potential for new business models, for example through licensing to other OEMs. In emerging markets outside of China, such as India or Southeast Asia, BMW could open up additional sales markets through local partnerships and targeted models for the emerging middle classes (e.g. compact electric vehicles).

Further risks lurk in the volatility of raw material prices and supply chain disruptions, which have already been exacerbated in 2024 by recalls (over 1.5 million vehicles) and semiconductor shortages. Fluctuations in lithium and cobalt prices (10-15% per quarter) could increase production costs for BEVs, while geopolitical uncertainties such as sanctions or trade barriers complicate access to critical materials. On the other hand, diversifying supply chains and increasing the use of secondary materials (e.g. recycled aluminum) offers an opportunity to reduce cost risks and meet regulatory sustainability requirements.

The balance between market risks, regulatory requirements and expansion opportunities will shape BMW in the coming years. While China remains a challenge as the largest single market, Europe and the US offer solid growth opportunities that can be leveraged through technological innovation and strategic partnerships. Overcoming regulatory hurdles, particularly in the area of ​​V2G and emissions standards, requires close collaboration with authorities to accelerate the transition to electric mobility.