Bayer faces challenges: glyphosate lawsuits and sales risks in focus!

Imagine looking at a global chessboard on which BAYER AG acts as a strategic player - sometimes defensively, sometimes offensively, always with an eye on long-term moves. In a world characterized by geopolitical tensions, climate change and the pursuit of innovation, the group positions itself in the dynamic markets of agriculture, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. But what does the playing field look like in the coming years, and what trends could determine Bayer's next move?

Let's start with the industry growth, which offers a solid basis for BAYER AG in all three core segments - Crop Science, Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Health. In the agricultural business, the division recorded a sales increase of 1.1% to 4.981 billion euros in the second quarter of 2024, driven primarily by herbicides containing glyphosate. Despite a challenging market environment, as Bayer itself emphasizes, the demand for sustainable solutions in agriculture remains a key growth driver. In the pharmaceutical sector, sales rose by 4.5% to 4.605 billion euros, boosted by innovative products such as Nubeqa™ and Kerendia™. Consumer Health grew by 5.3% to 1.458 billion euros, particularly due to strong sales in the gastrointestinal health sector. These figures reflect that Bayer is able to make up ground in high-growth segments despite a 16.5% decline in EBITDA before special items to 2.111 billion euros. A look at the current developments shows that the group confirms its forecast for 2024 and is relying on stable sales development and a solid EBITDA margin, as can be read in the official announcement on the company website ( Bayer Media ).

A decisive factor for Bayer's future are the global trends that have a lasting impact on the markets. In the agricultural sector, the industry is faced with the challenge of producing more with fewer resources - an area of ​​tension between climate change and food security. Bayer is responding to this with a clear commitment to sustainability, for example through the “Climate Transition and Transformation Plan”, which envisages a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90% by 2050. In addition, two electricity supply contracts for renewable energies were concluded, which secure 300 gigawatt hours of electricity. There is an increased focus on personalized medicine and innovative therapies in the pharmaceutical market, which Bayer is taking up with the planned market launch of two new drugs, elinzanetant and acoramidis, next year. The consumer health sector is benefiting from growing health awareness among consumers, which is further driving demand for over-the-counter products. These trends indicate that Bayer is strategically aligning itself with the mega-topics of sustainability and innovation in order to remain competitive in the long term.

At a global level, the group remains anchored in a complex structure of opportunities and risks. North America and Europe remain key markets, particularly for the pharmaceutical business, where new products achieve high growth rates. In Asia, particularly in China, Bayer sees potential in the agricultural sector as demand for modern farming solutions increases with the growing population. Latin America, on the other hand, remains an important driver for the crop science business, as products containing glyphosate are in high demand here. At the same time, Bayer faces regulatory hurdles, such as the use of glyphosate, which leads to uncertainty in various regions. Focusing on strategic technologies in the agricultural sector, as planned in Germany, could help mitigate such risks, according to another company announcement ( Bayer agricultural strategy ).

From a regional perspective, a differentiated picture emerges. In Germany and Europe, Bayer is relying on research and development to future-proof its agricultural division, while the pharmaceutical market is benefiting from an aging population and rising healthcare costs. In emerging markets, however, the focus is on affordable solutions, both in the agricultural and consumer health sectors. This geographical diversification enables Bayer to better absorb global crises such as supply chain problems or political instability, but also poses the challenge of meeting different regulatory requirements. The balance between global presence and regional adaptation will therefore be a decisive factor for the group's continued success.

Let's navigate the complex competitive landscape in which BAYER AG has to maintain its position - a terrain that is characterized as much by innovation as by strategic power struggles. With a portfolio that ranges from agricultural chemicals to pharmaceuticals to consumer goods, the group is in a constant showdown with global rivals. How big is Bayer's share in these markets, who are the strongest opponents, and what advantages could be decisive for the future?

A closer look at market shares reveals Bayer's strong but not unchallenged position. In the pharmaceutical industry, Bayer is considered the largest company in Germany, with annual sales of around 46.6 billion euros in 2024, although this fell by 2% compared to the previous year. In the agriculture sector, the crop science division holds a significant market share of 19.4% in the global crop protection chemicals market, which stood at $65.10 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow to $83.47 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 2.8%. These figures illustrate Bayer's importance, particularly in the area of ​​herbicides, where products containing glyphosate play a central role. Nevertheless, legal disputes, such as glyphosate lawsuits with damages of over $2 billion in 2024, are putting a strain on the company's financial stability and reputation. A detailed overview of these developments can be found on a comprehensive statistics platform ( Statistics Bayer ).

In the competitive environment, Bayer must assert itself against powerful competitors who have different strengths in their respective segments. In the agricultural sector, companies such as Syngenta International AG, BASF SE, Corteva AgriScience and UPL Ltd. as direct rivals, with Syngenta and BASF also holding significant market shares in the field of crop protection products. These competitors benefit from similar trends such as the increasing demand for biopesticides and strict regulatory requirements that are dynamizing the market. In the pharmaceutical sector, Bayer faces global giants such as Pfizer, Novartis and Roche, who score points with extensive research budgets and broad product pipelines. In the consumer health sector, Bayer competes with companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble, which dominate with strong brands and broad distribution networks. A report on market dynamics in the crop protection sector provides further insights into the positioning of key competitors ( Straits Research ).

So what are the decisive advantages that could bring Bayer forward in this tough competition? A key plus point is the high investment in research and development, which amounted to over 6 billion euros in 2024, of which 3.4 billion euros for Pharmaceuticals and 2.6 billion euros for Crop Science. These funds will flow into promising projects, including four new drugs scheduled to come onto the market in 2025, as well as the heart drug acoramidis with blockbuster potential. In the agricultural sector, Bayer plans to launch the insecticide Plenexos and the herbicide Icafolin by 2027, which could strengthen its product range. In addition, there is strategic diversification across three business areas, which enables Bayer to cushion risks such as the glyphosate lawsuits through profits in other segments. With over 350 affiliated companies and around 93,000 employees worldwide, the group also has a global presence that makes it easier to quickly adapt to regional needs.

Another aspect that sets Bayer apart from many competitors is its many years of experience - since its founding in 1863, the Leverkusen-based company has established itself as an innovator. This history creates trust among partners and customers, even if legal disputes such as those regarding PCB or Xarelto temporarily tarnish this image. Partial successes can be seen as positive, such as in May 2024, when an appeals court in the USA overturned an earlier PCB ruling. Such developments could help Bayer to focus more on the further development of ten potential blockbusters in the next ten years, as the group is aiming for. At the same time, the ability to overcome regulatory hurdles remains a critical factor, particularly in the agricultural sector, where strict regulations are increasingly restricting the use of pesticides.

The competitive landscape remains dynamic, and Bayer is faced with the task of leveraging its strengths while minimizing weaknesses such as ongoing legal risks. How the group finds this balance in the coming years depends not only on internal decisions, but also on external market conditions, which require constant adjustments.

Let's delve into the financial DNA of BAYER AG, where numbers are more than just results - they tell the story of challenges, strategies and future potential. The Group's latest developments and forecasts provide insights into revenue streams, profit developments and balance sheet strength. What key figures paint the picture for 2024 and 2025, and how is Bayer positioning itself for the coming years?

Let's start with the sales figures, which reveal a mixed development. For 2024, Bayer reported annual sales of approximately 46.6 billion euros, a decline of 2% compared to the previous year. In the second quarter of 2024, sales were 11.144 billion euros, an increase of 3.1% (adjusted for currency and portfolio effects). The group is raising its forecast for 2025 and expects currency-adjusted sales of between 46 and 48 billion euros, compared to the previous estimate of 45 to 47 billion euros. In the second quarter of 2025, sales of around 10.7 billion euros will be recorded, with growth of 2.2% in the Crop Science division, while Pharmaceuticals (+0.6%) and Consumer Health (+0.2%) are almost stagnant. These figures make it clear that despite short-term fluctuations, a moderate recovery is being sought, as can be seen from the latest company announcements ( Bayer financial forecast 2025 ).

When it comes to profits, there is a sobering picture for 2024, with an annual loss of around 2.6 billion euros, heavily influenced by legal disputes, especially in the crop science sector. In the second quarter of 2024, the consolidated result was minus 34 million euros, a significant improvement compared to the previous year (minus 1.887 billion euros). For 2025, Bayer forecasts adjusted earnings per share of between 4.80 and 5.30 euros, up from the previous estimate of 4.50 to 5.00 euros. This development indicates a stabilization, even if special influences on EBIT, such as provisions for US legal disputes, will impact EBIT by around minus 1 billion euros in the second quarter of 2025. For the full year 2025, special items in EBITDA are expected to be between minus 3.5 and minus 2.5 billion euros, significantly higher than the previous minus 1.5 to minus 0.5 billion euros.

EBITDA before special items, a key indicator of operating performance, fell by 16.5% to 2.111 billion euros in the second quarter of 2024. A recovery is targeted for 2025, with a forecast of 9.7 to 10.2 billion euros, compared to the previous estimate of 9.5 to 10.0 billion euros. In the second quarter of 2025, EBITDA before special items will be around 2.1 billion euros. Margins vary by division: Pharmaceuticals is expected to have an EBITDA margin of 24% to 26% in 2025 (previously 23% to 26%), while Consumer Health is targeting a margin of 23% to 24%. Negative currency effects will burden EBITDA 2025 by around 500 million euros, which will put additional pressure on margins.

A look at the balance sheet figures shows both strengths and challenges. Free cash flow improved to 1.273 billion euros in the second quarter of 2024, compared to minus 473 million euros in the previous year, and is around 0.1 billion euros in the second quarter of 2025. For the full year 2025, the forecast remains unchanged at 1.5 to 2.5 billion euros. Net financial debt fell by 1.9% to 36.760 billion euros in the second quarter of 2024 and is expected to be 31.0 to 32.0 billion euros in 2025, with a reducing currency effect of 1.2 billion euros. In the second quarter of 2025, the debt will be 33.3 billion euros. This development signals gradual relief, even if high debt remains a risk factor. A historical overview of sales performance since 1995 provides additional contextual data on long-term financial position ( Statista sales data ).

The financial indicators make it clear that Bayer operates in an area of ​​tension between operational progress and external pressures. Currency effects, which will reduce consolidated sales by around 2 billion euros in 2025, as well as high provisions for legal disputes remain hurdles that need to be overcome. At the same time, the increased forecasts for sales and earnings offer a certain degree of optimism that the group is on the way to a more stable financial basis.

Let's take a journey through time through the stock market world to take a closer look at the development of BAYER AG - a path marked by ups and downs. The stock performance, fluctuations and the comparison with the market index provide crucial information about how the group is holding up in a volatile environment. What patterns have emerged in the past and what might they mean for the future?

First, let's take a look at the historical course trends, which reveal a changeable development. In 2024 and into October 2025, Bayer shares showed a mixed performance. The 52-week high was reached on October 2, 2025 at EUR 29.93, while the low was on April 7, 2025 at EUR 18.38. The current price (as of October 2025) is 26.05 euros, which corresponds to a recovery of 41.7% since the low point, but is still 13.0% below the annual high. Over the last 52 weeks, the share achieved a return of 24.8%, outperforming the benchmark index by 0.1%. In contrast, the last four weeks saw a decline of 6.9%, underperforming the index by 4.6%. This data illustrates that while the stock shows recovery potential, it remains vulnerable to short-term setbacks, as can be seen from current stock market information ( TraderFox Bayer analysis ).

The volatility of Bayer shares reflects the uncertainties facing the group. Price fluctuations are not uncommon, especially given external pressures such as litigation over glyphosate and PCBs, which continue to impact investor confidence. However, the strong recovery of over 41% since the low in April 2025 shows that the market is also picking up on positive signals, such as the increased forecasts for 2025 or progress in the product pipeline. Nevertheless, the stock remains a risky investment with a safety score of just 4.0 out of 100 (96% of comparable stocks have a higher score) and a quality score of 13.0 out of 100. Such indicators suggest increased volatility that investors need to take into account when making decisions. The short-term losses of almost 7% in the last four weeks underline that external factors or market sentiment can quickly lead to price corrections.

Compared to the broader market, especially indices such as the DAX or the Nasdaq 100, Bayer shows an ambivalent development. While the stock has slightly outperformed the benchmark index over the last 52 weeks, the short-term underperformance in the last few weeks is significant. Historically, Bayer has often underperformed the DAX in recent years, partly due to high litigation provisions and associated losses. In contrast, megatrend stocks or technology indices such as the Nasdaq 100 have experienced significantly greater appreciation since December 1999, as shown by long-term comparative data ( Boerse.de Bayer shares ). This discrepancy makes it clear that Bayer, as a traditional industrial and pharmaceutical company, does not benefit from the same growth drivers as technology-driven markets.

Another aspect that influences the price development is the dividend policy. With a current dividend of 0.11 euros per share and a yield of 0.6%, Bayer remains unattractive for return-oriented investors - 80% of comparable stocks offer higher dividend yields. In addition, the average dividend growth over the past ten years shows a decline of 25.9% per year, and the payout ratio over the past three years is minus 192%, indicating the difficult profit situation. Such factors could put further pressure on the price as investors look for more stable sources of income.

The historical price development and current volatility suggest that Bayer continues to navigate uncertain waters. Positive impulses could come from successful product launches or a resolution of legal disputes, while negative market trends or further setbacks could slow down the recovery. How these dynamics impact long-term performance remains an open field that investors should monitor closely.

Let's take a deeper look at the external and internal forces that shape BAYER AG in a global economic structure - an interplay of interest rate landscapes, raw material costs, market demand and management strategies. These factors significantly influence the operational and financial orientation of the group. What developments shape the framework in which Bayer operates and how could they shape the future of the company?

Let's start with interest rate developments, which are of central importance for a capital-intensive company like Bayer. The building interest rates for ten-year loans are currently 3.6% (as of November 5, 2025), and over 80% of the experts surveyed expect stable interest rates in the short term, supported by a robust internal market situation in the EU and an inflation rate close to the ECB's 2% target. However, in the medium term, 60% of experts see an increase to around 4% due to geopolitical tensions, new tariffs and high national debt, which could increase Bayer's financing costs. With net financial debt of 33.3 billion euros in the second quarter of 2025, the group remains vulnerable to interest rate increases, which would increase the interest burden on existing debt. Detailed interest rate forecasts provide further insight into this dynamic ( Interhyp interest rate forecast ).

Another critical factor is raw material prices, which particularly affect the Crop Science division. Fluctuations in energy and chemical costs, which are essential for the production of crop protection products and fertilizers, have a direct impact on production costs. Since 2024, prices for important raw materials such as natural gas and phosphate have been partially stabilized, but geopolitical uncertainties, for example in Ukraine or the Middle East, could lead to renewed price jumps. This means a challenge for Bayer to maintain margins, especially since the Crop Science division only posted sales growth of 2.2% in the second quarter of 2025. Strategic hedging through long-term supply contracts or diversification of sources of supply could be crucial here in order to minimize cost risks.

The development of demand shows a differentiated picture across the business areas. In the agricultural sector, demand for crop protection products and sustainable solutions remains robust, driven by global needs for food security and increasing populations, particularly in Asia and Latin America. In pharmaceuticals, Bayer is benefiting from an aging population in Europe and North America as well as the introduction of new drugs such as acoramidis, which are scheduled to hit the market in 2025. The Consumer Health division sees growing demand for over-the-counter products, supported by increased health awareness, although sales growth was almost stagnant at 0.2% in the second quarter of 2025. However, external factors such as economic downturns or regulatory restrictions, such as glyphosate, could dampen demand in individual segments.

Crucial to navigating these external challenges is Bayer's management, which has been under pressure to make strategic decisions in recent years. Under the leadership of CEO Bill Anderson, who has been in office since 2023, the group has taken measures to optimize its cost structure and manage legal risks, particularly related to glyphosate lawsuits. The increase in the sales and earnings forecast for 2025 (sales: 46-48 billion euros; EBITDA before special items: 9.7-10.2 billion euros) signals a clear focus on operational strength. At the same time, management is faced with the task of reducing the high level of debt and using investments in research and development (2024: over 6 billion euros) in a targeted manner in order to promote innovations such as the planned blockbuster products. However, critics complain that communication about legal disputes and their financial impact could be more transparent in order to increase investor confidence.

The combination of rising interest rates, volatile raw material prices, varying demand and the need for a stringent management strategy presents Bayer with a complex set of challenges. How the group balances these external and internal factors in the coming years will largely determine whether it can consolidate its position as a leading player in the agricultural, pharmaceutical and consumer goods sectors.

Let's explore the geopolitical waves that wash over BAYER AG in a global market - a sea of ​​trade conflicts, sanctions and political uncertainty that harbors both risks and opportunities. For an internationally active company like Bayer, these external factors are crucial as they directly influence supply chains, market access and strategic planning. What developments are shaping the environment and how could they shape the future of the company?

First, we focus on trade conflicts that have shaken the global economy in recent years. Tensions between the US and China, which remain at the center of international discussions, are impacting companies like Bayer, which have a strong presence in both markets. Current talks to defuse the conflict, such as those recently held in London, could provide short-term relief, but uncertainty remains. New tariffs or trade restrictions could increase costs for Bayer, particularly in the agricultural sector, where raw materials and products move through global supply chains. With a steadily growing share of sales from Asia, particularly China, Bayer is vulnerable to disruptions that make access to this important growth market more difficult. A recent report highlights the relevance of these developments for DAX companies ( The shareholder ).

Sanctions represent another challenge that may affect Bayer's operations in certain regions. Conflicts like the one in Ukraine have led to comprehensive sanctions against Russia, making access to this market more difficult for Western companies. For Bayer, which relies on Eastern European markets for its crop science division, such measures mean potential lost sales and supply chain problems, particularly for raw materials such as fertilizers. Sanctions or trade restrictions in other geopolitically unstable regions, such as the Middle East, could also drive up the costs of energy and chemicals that are essential for production. These risks force Bayer to develop alternative sources of supply and promote regional diversification in order to reduce dependencies.

Political stability - or lack thereof - also plays a central role in Bayer's global operations. In Europe, the EU's relative stability offers a solid basis, but regulatory uncertainties, such as those related to glyphosate, are weighing on the Crop Science Division. In the United States, a core market for Bayer, political polarization and changing government policies create unpredictability, particularly in litigation. A recent verdict in Georgia with $2.1 billion in damages over glyphosate shows the urgency of obtaining a uniform federal regulation, which is why Bayer has appealed to the Supreme Court. In emerging countries such as Brazil or India, where Bayer is heavily involved in the agricultural business, political instability or sudden changes in legislation can make market access more difficult. Such uncertainties require a flexible strategy in order to be able to react to short-term political developments.

The combination of trade conflicts, sanctions and political instability presents Bayer with a complex set of challenges that makes strategic planning difficult. CEO Bill Anderson has described 2025 as the most challenging year in the group's turnaround, with stagnant sales between 45 and 47 billion euros and a decline in adjusted EBITDA to 9.3 to 9.8 billion euros. At the same time, debts of over 32 billion euros and glyphosate lawsuits, which have already incurred $10 billion in litigation costs, are straining financial flexibility to respond to geopolitical risks. Nevertheless, long-term initiatives such as the planned increase in margins in the crop science division to over 20% by 2029 could help cushion such external disruptions.

The geopolitical environment remains a crucial factor testing Bayer's ability to achieve global expansion and stability. How the Group deals with these uncertainties will depend not only on internal measures, but also on the development of international relationships and political decisions that could continue to shape the market.

Let's take a look behind the scenes of BAYER AG's operational machinery, where order backlogs, supply chains and production capacities form the basis for growth and stability. These elements are crucial to meet demand and ensure competitiveness, especially in an environment characterized by global uncertainties. What challenges and opportunities are emerging in these areas, and how could they influence Bayer's future?

Let's start with the order backlog, which is an important indicator of short-term business performance. Although specific figures for Bayer are not publicly available, general data on the manufacturing sector in Germany provides context. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the order backlog in June 2024 fell by 0.2% compared to the previous month and by 6.2% compared to the previous year, with a range of 7.2 months. For Bayer, which operates in pharmaceuticals and agricultural chemicals, this could indicate subdued demand or delayed orders, particularly in its crop science division, where seasonal fluctuations play a role. In the pharmaceutical sector, however, new products such as acoramidis and elinzanetant, which are scheduled to come onto the market in 2025, could strengthen the order backlog. A detailed overview of the general development of the order backlog in Germany is available ( Destatis order backlog ).

Supply bottlenecks represent another hurdle that can impact Bayer's operational efficiency. Global supply chain problems, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in Ukraine or trade disputes between the USA and China, have complicated the availability of raw materials and intermediate products in recent years. For the Crop Science Division, fluctuations in the supply of chemicals and energy are particularly critical as they directly influence the production of crop protection products. In the pharmaceutical sector, shortages of active ingredients or packaging materials could delay the market launch of new drugs. While Bayer has taken steps to diversify supply sources, ongoing uncertainty in global markets remains a risk. The impact of such bottlenecks could weigh on the sales forecast for 2025 (46-48 billion euros) if they are not resolved in a timely manner.

Production capacities form the backbone to fulfill orders and minimize delivery bottlenecks. Bayer has a global network of production sites, which has been strengthened in recent years through investments in modern technologies and sustainable processes. In Germany, the group focuses on strategic technologies in the agricultural division in order to increase efficiency. Nevertheless, Bayer faces the challenge of adapting capacity to fluctuating demand, particularly in the agricultural sector where seasonal peaks occur. In the pharmaceutical sector, new products such as Beyonttra (Acoramidis) require scaling of production in order to realize potential sales of over 1 billion euros annually. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainties or rising energy costs could increase production costs, which could make it difficult to achieve the desired margin increase in the crop science division to over 20% by 2029.

Another aspect is the ability to use production capacities flexibly to respond to market changes. Bayer has optimized processes in recent years, for example by concluding electricity supply contracts for renewable energies (300 gigawatt hours) in order to reduce costs and achieve sustainability goals. However, balancing capacity utilization and overproduction remains a challenge, particularly in an environment where manufacturing backlogs are declining. Investments in digital technologies and automation could help to increase efficiency and avoid bottlenecks in the long term.

The operational challenges surrounding order backlog, delivery bottlenecks and production capacities are closely linked and require a strategic approach. How Bayer manages this balance in a volatile global environment will be crucial to achieving its targeted sales and margin targets while being able to respond to unforeseen disruptions.

Let's shed light on the innovative power that drives BAYER AG by diving into the world of technological advances, patents and research efforts. These elements form the foundation for the Group's long-term competitiveness in a rapidly changing market. What developments will shape Bayer's future, and how is the company positioning itself through its investments in science?

Technological advances are at the heart of Bayer's strategy to set new standards in agriculture, pharmaceuticals and consumer health. In the Crop Science division, the group focuses on regenerative agriculture and innovative crop protection solutions to sustainably increase productivity. In the pharmaceutical sector, Bayer is driving advances in cardiology, oncology and women's health, for example through the development of gene and cell therapies. An outstanding example is the Berlin Center for Gene and Cell Therapies, a collaboration with the Charité that aims to bring therapies for cancer, autoimmune diseases and neurodegenerative diseases to patients more quickly. This project, supported by the federal government with 80 million euros, is to be built at the Bayer campus in Berlin-Mitte from 2025 and create a leading biotech ecosystem. Further information about this project can be found in a current press release ( Charité press release ).

Patents are another cornerstone that secures Bayer's market position by protecting intellectual property and creating competitive advantages. In recent years, the group has filed numerous patents in the areas of agricultural chemistry and pharmaceuticals, including those for new active ingredients and drug delivery technologies. In the pharmaceutical segment, the focus is on two potential blockbusters: Acoramidis (Beyonttra) for heart disease and Elinzanetant for menopausal symptoms, both with sales potential of over 1 billion euros annually. In the agricultural sector, Bayer is securing patents for innovative products such as the insecticide Plenexos and the herbicide Icafolin, which are scheduled to come onto the market by 2027. These intellectual property rights are critical to justify investment in research and keep competitors at bay, even as legal challenges like the glyphosate lawsuits call into question the value of some patents.

R&D spending underlines Bayer's commitment to innovation as a driving force. In 2024, the group invested 5,860 million euros (adjusted for special items) in research and development, of which 3.4 billion euros went to the pharmaceutical division and 2.6 billion euros to Crop Science. Bayer employs around 15,900 scientists at various research locations worldwide who are working on groundbreaking solutions. Programs such as the Life Sciences Collaboration promote interdisciplinary exchange and creativity in research in order to develop new approaches. These investments aim to launch ten new blockbuster products by 2030, which could strengthen the revenue base in the long term. A detailed look at Bayer's innovation strategy is available on the company's website ( Bayer innovation ).

A central area of ​​technological development is the intensification of research into cell and gene therapies, for example for Parkinson's or rare genetic diseases. Such therapies offer enormous potential but require high initial investments and long development times, further driving up R&D spending. At the same time, Bayer relies on digital technologies to optimize research processes, for example through data-based analyzes in agriculture, which enable more precise cultivation solutions. These advances could help increase margins in the crop science division to over 20% by 2029, as targeted by management.

The combination of technological advances, a strong patent portfolio and high R&D spending positions Bayer as a pioneer in its core markets. However, the challenge remains to translate these investments into marketable products, especially in an environment characterized by regulatory hurdles and legal risks. How the group masters this balance will be crucial to its long-term growth strategy.

Let's take a look into the crystal ball to explore BAYER AG's prospects for the next three to five years - a period that will be characterized by strategic decisions and external uncertainties. With a focus on growth drivers and possible scenarios, a picture emerges that contains both opportunities and risks. What developments could guide the company's course until 2028 or 2030?

Bayer has set ambitious goals for the coming years that are based on a gradual recovery. After the recent increase in the forecast for 2025 with sales of 46 to 48 billion euros and EBITDA before special items of 9.7 to 10.2 billion euros, management expects a return to sustainable growth from 2027, especially in the pharmaceutical division. CEO Bill Anderson has called 2025 the most challenging year in the turnaround, but long-term initiatives such as increasing margins in the Crop Science division to over 20% by 2029 point to stabilization. Analysts see an average price target of EUR 28.56 by 2026, which corresponds to a potential of 9.61% above the current price, with a range of EUR 23.23 to EUR 36.75. The majority of 28 analysts (15) recommend Hold, while 12 recommend Buy and only one recommend Sell, indicating a cautious but not pessimistic view ( Shares.Guide price target ).

The key growth drivers include the introduction of new products, particularly in the pharmaceutical division. With two potential blockbusters – Acoramidis (Beyonttra) for heart disease and Elinzanetant for menopausal symptoms – Bayer could achieve annual sales of over 1 billion euros each from 2025. The group plans to bring a total of ten blockbuster products onto the market by 2030, which would significantly strengthen its sales base. In the agricultural sector, regenerative agriculture and new products such as Plenexos and Icafolin (market launch by 2027) are driving growth, supported by increasing global demand for food security. In addition, the Consumer Health division could benefit from growing health awareness, even if growth here remains more moderate. Positive momentum from the agriculture and pharmaceutical businesses has recently been highlighted by analysts such as Abed Jarad (mwb Research), despite a downgrade to hold due to glyphosate provisions ( The shareholder analysis ).

An optimistic scenario sees Bayer on a clear recovery path for the next three to five years. Assuming that the legal disputes over glyphosate - which have so far cost $10 billion - find a solution, for example through a uniform federal regulation in the USA, the company could regain its financial flexibility. Net financial debt, currently at 33.3 billion euros, could fall to below 30 billion euros by 2028 if free cash flow (forecast 2025: 1.5-2.5 billion euros) remains stable. Successful market launches of blockbusters and an increase in margins in the crop science division could drive sales to over 50 billion euros by 2030, with EBITDA margin growth of 2-3 percentage points. In this scenario, the share would reach the highest price target of EUR 36.75, which corresponds to an increase of over 41%.

A pessimistic scenario, on the other hand, paints a bleaker picture. If the glyphosate lawsuits continue to escalate - as the recent verdict in Georgia with 2.1 billion US dollars in damages suggests - additional provisions (already 3.5-2.5 billion euros in EBITDA in 2025) could weigh on profits. Geopolitical tensions, such as trade conflicts between the USA and China, could disrupt supply chains and drive up costs in the Crop Science division. At the same time, regulatory hurdles in Europe and the USA could delay the market launch of new products. In this case, sales could stagnate or fall below 45 billion euros by 2028, while the stock could reach the lowest price target of 23.23 euros, a decline of 10.84%. Analysts like Chris Counihan (Jefferies) point to the risks of moderate free cash flow and high debt that could make this scenario more likely.

A realistic baseline scenario lies between these extremes. Bayer could achieve a moderate increase in sales to 48-50 billion euros by 2028, supported by new pharmaceutical products and stable agricultural sales, while EBITDA before special items is 10-11 billion euros. Debt would slowly reduce to around 31 billion euros, but ongoing legal risks and currency effects (2025: 2 billion euros burden on sales) could dampen growth. In this scenario, the share would reach the average price target of EUR 28.56, which corresponds to a moderate recovery. The majority of analysts recommending “Hold” reflect this cautious but not negative view.

For Bayer, the coming years will depend on its ability to combine operational progress with managing external risks. Whether the group successfully uses the growth drivers and which of the outlined scenarios prevails remains closely linked to global market conditions and internal decisions.

Let's set the course for a short-term view and focus on the next 6 to 12 months of BAYER AG in order to understand the immediate challenges and opportunities. During this period, the focus is on operational goals, quarterly developments and the assessments of market observers. What factors could determine the company's course in the near future?

For the outlook until mid-2026, Bayer recently raised its annual targets for 2025 on a currency-adjusted basis, with expected sales of 46 to 48 billion euros and EBITDA before special items of 9.7 to 10.2 billion euros. In the second quarter of 2025, the group reported revenue of approximately 10.7 billion euros, down slightly from market expectations, while operating profit beat consensus estimate by 12%. For the coming quarters, Bayer is aiming for stabilization, particularly in the Crop Science division with growth of 2.2% in Q2 2025, as well as moderate progress in the Pharmaceuticals division (sales growth of 0 to +3%). Management expects free cash flow to remain at 1.5 to 2.5 billion euros, while net financial debt is expected to be at 31 to 32 billion euros. These targets indicate a cautious recovery, despite the burden of currency effects (approximately 2 billion euros in sales) and special items in EBITDA (minus 3.5 to 2.5 billion euros).

Quarterly goals for the next 6 to 12 months focus on operational stability and new product launches. In the third and fourth quarters of 2025, Bayer is expected to continue working toward the launch of acoramidis and elinzanetant, two potential blockbusters that could each generate over €1 billion in annual sales. In the agricultural sector, the company will look to take advantage of seasonal demand peaks to consolidate sales growth in the crop science division. For the first quarter of 2026, the focus could be on reducing debt to increase financial flexibility, while maintaining the EBITDA margin target for Pharmaceuticals (24-26%) and Consumer Health (23-24%). These near-term targets are critical to boosting investor confidence, especially given the high glyphosate litigation provisions that remain a burden.

Analyst opinions reflect a mixed but mostly cautious assessment for the coming months. Out of 28 analysts, 15 recommend "Hold", 12 recommend "Buy" and only one recommends "Sell", indicating a cautious stance. The average price target by 2026 is 28.56 euros, which corresponds to a potential of 9.61% above the current price, with a range of 23.23 euros (minus 10.84%) to 36.75 euros (plus 41.05%). Abed Jarad of mwb Research recently downgraded his recommendation to “Hold” from “Buy” due to higher provisions for the glyphosate complex and moderate free cash flow. Jefferies' Chris Counihan also maintains a Hold rating but highlights the positive EBITDA performance, while JPMorgan rates the stock as Neutral. A recent report shows that despite operational progress, the glyphosate problem is causing investors to remain cautious ( The shareholder analysis ).

Short-term developments will be heavily influenced by external factors, including ongoing litigation and possible currency fluctuations. Positive impulses could come from a successful market launch of the new pharmaceutical products, which could generate initial sales as early as the first half of 2026. At the same time, uncertainty remains due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory hurdles that could make access to important markets such as the USA or China difficult. Analysts such as Jarad point out that high debt levels (33.3 billion euros in Q2 2025) limit the flexibility to respond to such risks, dampening stock valuations.

The next 6 to 12 months will represent a phase of consolidation for Bayer, in which operational progress must be weighed against external pressures. How the Group finds this balance and whether it achieves its quarterly targets will be crucial to strengthening market confidence and laying the foundation for long-term growth.

Let's turn our attention to the invisible currents that influence BAYER AG in a turbulent market environment and consider the risks, legal hurdles and opportunities for expansion. These factors form a complex network that significantly shapes the strategic direction of the group. What threats and potential are emerging that could influence Bayer's path in the coming years?

Market risks represent a constant challenge for Bayer, particularly in a global environment characterized by economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Fluctuations in raw material prices, such as energy and chemicals, are weighing on the Crop Science division, where sales rose only 1.1% to 4.981 billion euros in the second quarter of 2024. Currency effects, which could reduce sales by around 2 billion euros in 2025, are making the situation even worse. In addition, trade conflicts, such as between the USA and China, impact supply chains and costs, while geopolitical tensions in regions such as Ukraine endanger the supply of important raw materials. Another risk is stock market volatility, compounded by uncertainties such as the glyphosate lawsuits - which have already cost $10 billion. These risks can affect financial stability, as shown by the latest financial figures ( Bayer business development ).

Regulatory hurdles represent another significant barrier that limits Bayer's operational freedom. In the agricultural sector, the use of herbicides containing glyphosate is under intense scrutiny, particularly in Europe and the USA, where strict regulations or bans are threatened. These uncertainties could significantly dampen sales of the Crop Science division, which recorded an increase of 1.1% in 2024. In pharmaceuticals, the launches of drugs such as elinzanetant and acoramidis, scheduled for 2025, are dependent on lengthy approval processes that could cause delays and additional costs. In the U.S., legal disputes such as the recent Georgia verdict for $2.1 billion in damages are exacerbating regulatory risks as Bayer hopes for a nationwide settlement. Such hurdles require a proactive adjustment of the strategy in order not to jeopardize access to important markets.

Despite these risks and hurdles, expansion potential offers significant opportunities for Bayer, particularly in high-growth regions and segments. In Asia, especially in China, the group sees great potential in the agricultural sector, as the demand for modern cultivation solutions increases with the growing population. Latin America, particularly Brazil, remains an important market for glyphosate-containing products, which accounted for a significant portion of sales growth in the Crop Science Division in 2024. In pharmaceuticals, the launch of new products such as Nubeqa™ (sales growth 90% in Q2 2024) and Kerendia™ (72.9%) in North America and Europe could further boost sales. In addition, the consumer health sector, with a sales increase of 5.3% to 1.458 billion euros in Q2 2024, offers potential in emerging countries where health awareness is growing. These expansion opportunities could help achieve the sales forecast for 2025 (46-48 billion euros) and open up new markets in the long term.

Another aspect of the expansion lies in strategic diversification and sustainable orientation. With the “Climate Transition and Transformation Plan”, Bayer is pursuing the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90% by 2050, supported by electricity supply contracts for renewable energies (300 gigawatt hours). Such initiatives could not only meet regulatory requirements, but also strengthen brand image and attract new customer groups. At the same time, the high net financial debt (33.3 billion euros in Q2 2025) remains a limiting factor that could limit investments in new markets or technologies.

The coming years will be a balancing act for Bayer between managing market risks, overcoming regulatory hurdles and exploiting expansion potential. How the Group overcomes these challenges depends on a flexible strategy and the ability to react quickly to global changes in order to secure competitive advantages.